Canadiens vs Sabres

Nick Suzuki and the Canadiens arrive in Buffalo on an 11-3-4 heater over their last 17 and a five-game winning streak against the Sabres, including a 4-2 home win in October, but they run into a Buffalo side that’s 14-2-0 since December 9 and just handled the Flyers 5-2 as Rasmus Dahlin’s power play caught fire. Montreal’s injury list is significant – Patrik Laine (core surgery), Alex Newhook (ankle) and Kaiden Guhle (adductor) are all out for months and Kirby Dach is still sidelined – whereas Buffalo’s main concern is Josh Norris, who left Wednesday’s win after a cross-check to the ribs, leaving the rest of their now-deep forward group intact. Cole Caufield has punished Buffalo in recent meetings, including a two-goal night in the 7-5 win here in 2024 plus key power-play strikes in last season’s mini-series sweep, while Dahlin counters with points in six straight against Montreal, setting up a star-driven battle that tends to tilt toward whoever wins special teams. With the Canadiens 13-4-6 on the road and running a three-goalie rotation in which Jacob Fowler’s .908 save percentage and fresher legs look preferable to Colten Ellis starting the back half of Buffalo’s back-to-back, and with Montreal clinging to third in the Atlantic five points ahead of Buffalo (which holds two games in hand), I’ll side with the more battle-tested group that has consistently solved this opponent’s structure. Recommendation: Montreal Canadiens -118 on the moneyline, graded B- for a small but real edge in both matchup history and goaltending setup, albeit with limited pricing value in a near coin-flip spot. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 15/01/2026 09:23.([nhl.com](https://www.nhl.com/canadiens/news/mtl-buf-what-you-need-to-know-jan-15-2026))

Given how these rosters are currently built and trending, this matchup leans high event: Montreal is one of the league’s most explosive offenses with Suzuki, Caufield, Ivan Demidov, Juraj Slafkovsky and Lane Hutson driving a top-six that has fueled an 11-3-4 run, while Buffalo has won 14 of its past 16 by leaning into offense from Tage Thompson, Alex Tuch, Ryan McLeod and a rejuvenated power play quarterbacked by Dahlin, who just scored twice with the man advantage against Philadelphia. Recent head-to-heads back that story up, with the last four meetings finishing 7-5, 4-2, 4-2 and 4-3 (OT) – three clear overs and one push at 6 – as Caufield and Suzuki repeatedly burn the Sabres’ penalty kill and Buffalo’s top unit answers at five-on-five. The Sabres are on the second night of a back-to-back and likely to turn to Ellis after Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen started Wednesday, while Montreal’s three-goalie rotation points toward young Fowler; that combination, plus tired Sabres legs, is more conducive to breakdowns than a low-event goaltending clinic. Layer on the playoff stakes with Buffalo just five points back of Montreal and two games in hand, plus a Sabres home record of 14-6-2 that encourages them to push pace in front of a loud KeyBank Center crowd rather than sit on a one-goal cushion, and the game script tilts toward aggressive, offense-first hockey deep into the third period. I’m on Over 6 at -125, graded B because the matchup and situational angles line up for goals, but the relatively heavy juice and the possibility that one of the young goalies steals the show keeps it short of elite value. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 15/01/2026 09:23.([nhl.com](https://www.nhl.com/sabres/news/how-to-watch-buffalo-sabres-montreal-canadiens-2005-06-reunion-night))

In a game with clear playoff implications – Montreal holding third in the Atlantic with 59 points in 47 games and Buffalo chasing with 54 in 45 – I prefer to grab the cushion with the home side rather than lay a big number with a short-handed favorite, especially given how tight this matchup has been. The Canadiens’ five-game win streak over Buffalo does include two 4-2 decisions, but it also features last season’s 4-3 OT escape at Bell Centre and multiple stretches where the Sabres carried play, and Buffalo’s current 14-2-0 surge plus a 14-6-2 home mark suggest they’re rarely getting blown out in this building. Montreal’s missing Laine, Newhook and Guhle for extended periods and is still without Dach, so once you get past the top unit of Suzuki, Caufield and Demidov the margin for pulling away shrinks, particularly against a Sabres blue line anchored by Dahlin and Owen Power that can tilt the ice and keep games within a goal even when trailing. Buffalo does carry some risk if Norris can’t go after the Flyers cross-check, but with deep center options on the current roster and evidence they’re 3-1-1 in second legs of back-to-backs, you’re essentially betting that this stays a one-goal contest decided by a late special-teams swing or overtime rather than a comfortable Montreal cruise. I’ll take Buffalo Sabres +1.5 at -220 on the puckline, graded B as a high-likelihood but low-payout position that leans on the Sabres’ recent form, strong home profile and the history of close scores in this head-to-head. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 15/01/2026 09:23.([nhl.com](https://www.nhl.com/canadiens/news/mtl-buf-what-you-need-to-know-jan-15-2026))