Wild vs Maple Leafs

Toronto has taken six of its last eight games and just erased a third-period deficit in Winnipeg, while Minnesota snapped a three-game skid with an overtime win in Buffalo but is still only 3-3-2 in January and now plays its second road contest in three nights. With both current rosters confirmed via ESPN — Matthews, Marner, Knies and a hot Joseph Woll available for the Leafs, and Kaprizov, Zuccarello, Quinn Hughes and Filip Gustavsson leading the Wild — the deciding edge comes from who’s missing: Minnesota is without Matt Boldy, Joel Eriksson Ek and Jonas Brodin, all on injured reserve, which strips finish from their top six and stability from their top pair, while Toronto is likely without William Nylander but still has more proven scoring layers at home. Matthews has historically torched Minnesota with 11 goals and 16 points in 14 career games, and Toronto’s 16-5-5 home mark plus its 3.38 goals per game at Scotiabank compares favorably to a Wild team whose recent defensive numbers have wobbled on this trip. Laying -120 on the Leafs moneyline is a reasonable price given their form, home-ice tilt metrics, and Minnesota’s injury load, but Nylander’s absence and the Wild’s strong underlying road profile keep this from elite status, so this recommendation grades out as a B. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 19/01/2026 09:36

Both teams are living in high-event territory right now, with the total going over in the vast majority of recent Wild games and in most of Toronto’s January slate, including 6-5 and 4-3 overtime thrillers that show how volatile the Leafs’ attack-and-trade style has become. Season-long scoring supports the Over: Toronto sits around 3.4 goals for and 3.3 against per game, while Minnesota is near 3.2 for and 2.9 against, and they’ve combined to clear a 5.5 total in a large share of their recent outings. Minnesota’s blue line is weakened further by Brodin and Zach Bogosian being out, while the Leafs lose some playmaking with Nylander sidelined but compensate with Matthews, Knies, Marner and an active defense pushing pace, and Kaprizov’s 55-point season form plus his strong road splits suggests the Wild should contribute meaningfully to the scoreboard even with Boldy and Eriksson Ek unavailable. With both clubs firmly into the second half of their schedules and every point crucial in tight playoff races, late-game risk-taking and goalie pulls also work in favor of the Over, though laying -140 introduces price risk if this turns into a tighter goaltending duel. Over 5.5 at -140 gets a B-: the scoring profile is strong, but the juice is heavy enough that this is more of a solid lean than a must-fire position. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 19/01/2026 09:36

Given Toronto’s short moneyline price and pattern of one-goal home decisions in this recent run, the Wild catching +1.5 goals appeals even with their injury situation and the Leafs’ improving overall form. Minnesota’s structure under John Hynes has consistently kept them in games — they allow under three goals per night on the season, boast a strong road defensive rate, and lean on Gustavsson’s 2.5-range goals-against to hang around even when undermanned — and that travels reasonably well into a building where the Leafs themselves have played a string of tight contests. While Matthews’ dominant history versus the Wild and Toronto’s 16-5-5 home record argue against chasing a Minnesota upset, the Wild’s combination of Kaprizov-driven offense, a deep veteran supporting cast (Zuccarello, Tarasenko, Foligno) and a generally conservative road approach makes a multi-goal Leafs win less common, especially when Toronto is missing Nylander and may be more inclined to nurse leads in a congested playoff-race schedule. The price at -250 is steep and caps value, but with both teams beyond 40 games and fighting for playoff seeding, Minnesota is incentivized to clamp down late and avoid empty-net blowouts, pushing the distribution of outcomes toward a one-goal margin. That combination of high cover probability and modest but not elite value earns Wild +1.5 a B+ on the puckline. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 19/01/2026 09:36