Timberwolves vs Spurs

San Antonio’s 28-13 squad has turned Frost Bank Center into one of the West’s tougher stops, pairing a top-tier offense around Victor Wembanyama and De’Aaron Fox with a +5-ish average scoring margin and a strong home record, while Minnesota rolls in off a draining loss in Houston that snapped their recent surge and extends an already heavy minutes load for Julius Randle and Rudy Gobert on this road swing. The Spurs are coming off a statement stretch that includes a rout of Milwaukee and enter this one on a small winning streak, whereas the Timberwolves are on the second night of a back-to-back (4-2 in those games) and just got reminded how thin their margin is without a fully healthy Anthony Edwards, who is projected to return from a foot issue but may not be at peak explosiveness. San Antonio also has revenge motivation after blowing a big lead in Minneapolis six days ago and losing 104-103 despite 29 points from Wembanyama, and even with Devin Vassell out and Stephon Castle banged up, their depth of shot creation looks stronger at home than Minnesota’s, especially if Edwards is even slightly limited. With both teams firmly in the top four of the West and jockeying for home-court positioning, I expect the more rested, healthier Spurs side to close this one out late, but the steep -250 price keeps this from elite value, so I grade Spurs moneyline a B: solid likelihood, modest payout. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 17/01/2026 09:49

Rudy Gobert’s anchoring of a Minnesota defense allowing roughly 114–115 points per game, combined with San Antonio’s improved half-court defense around Wembanyama and their tendency to play more controlled at home, makes 228.5 feel slightly high for a matchup that has real seeding stakes attached. The Spurs score around 118 a night with a top-10 offensive rating, but their home contests have gone under more often than not this season, and tonight they’re missing one of their better perimeter scorers and spacers in Devin Vassell while potentially managing Stephon Castle’s minutes, which trims some shooting and transition punch. On the other side, the Timberwolves’ offense is heavily driven by Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle, and while both have shredded defenses lately, Edwards is just coming back from a foot issue and Minnesota is flying in off a high-usage, high-leverage loss in Houston, a combination that often saps pace and three-point efficiency on the second night of a back-to-back. Their most recent meeting in Minneapolis finished 104-103, well under this total, and with both sitting firmly in the top half of the West, this has every chance to resemble a playoff-style grind where rim protection from Gobert and Wembanyama suppresses easy paint points and forces longer, lower-possession half-court sequences. I like Under 228.5 (-110) with a B+ grade, reflecting a strong situational case and decent edge against the number while still respecting the ceiling of two elite offenses. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 17/01/2026 09:49

Anthony Edwards has historically torched San Antonio, averaging roughly 22 points, 5 rebounds and 5 assists across nearly 20 career meetings, and with him expected back in the starting lineup alongside a red-hot Julius Randle and the Gobert–McDaniels defensive backbone, Minnesota looks well-equipped to keep this within two possessions even on tired legs. The Spurs deserve to be favored at home given their 28-13 record, strong point differential and recent home dominance around Wembanyama and Fox, but they’re still just 5-5 over their last 10 overall and are down Devin Vassell with Stephon Castle not fully healthy, which shortens their perimeter rotation and makes it harder to consistently build and sustain big leads. These teams have already played a one-point game in Minneapolis this month, Gobert has rebounded well in both meetings this season, and Wembanyama’s own strong history versus the Wolves points more toward tightly contested battles than blowouts, especially with both clubs sitting in the West’s top four and treating matchups like this as barometers for playoff readiness. Minnesota is also a respectable 4-2 on the second night of back-to-backs, and with 6.5 points of cushion in what profiles as another late-possession game, I’m willing to back the underdog to hang around, grading Timberwolves +6.5 (-110) a B for combining solid probability with better upside than laying heavy juice on the favorite’s side. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 17/01/2026 09:49