Timberwolves vs Pelicans

Anthony Edwards and the Timberwolves come in on a three-game winning streak, including back-to-back statement wins over Boston and San Antonio followed by a 44-point explosion from Edwards in an OT victory against these same Pelicans, while New Orleans has dropped nine of its last ten despite often hanging around on the scoreboard. With Minnesota’s core rotation fully available and anchored by Edwards, Rudy Gobert, Julius Randle and a deep guard room, they face a Pelicans side missing Zion Williamson, Dejounte Murray, Jordan Poole, Herb Jones and multiple rotation bigs, stripping New Orleans of much of the on-ball creation and interior force that has historically given the Wolves trouble. Even though the moneyline price on Minnesota is heavy chalk and offers limited raw value, the combination of form, health, and talent gap — especially after the Wolves just survived New Orleans’ best punch on the road — makes laying the moneyline a high-confidence but low-upside play, worthy of an A- grade. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 04/12/2025 09:55am

The Pelicans’ shorthanded group just pushed Minnesota into a 149-142 track meet, but that came with overtime, hot shooting from both Edwards and Trey Murphy III, and heavy minutes loads on the front end of a back-to-back that should naturally drag the pace and efficiency down in the rematch. On the season, these teams combine to score roughly in line with this 234 total, yet New Orleans will again be without high-usage engines like Zion and Dejounte while also missing Poole and Herb Jones, meaning more possessions run through younger, less efficient creators against a Wolves defense that has generally trended under on the road despite recent offensive surges. Between likely fatigue after the OT thriller, Minnesota’s ability to control tempo when Gobert is anchoring the paint, and a Pelicans rotation missing several of its best shot-makers, the number looks slightly inflated off last night’s fireworks, so I lean to Under 234 at -115 for a solid but not slam-dunk B-grade edge. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 04/12/2025 09:55am

New Orleans’ makeshift rotation just showed its fight by taking Minnesota to overtime as big underdogs, and even though the Pelicans have only three wins, they’ve quietly been far better against the spread than straight up, going well above .500 ATS while the Wolves sit below water and have struggled to cover inflated numbers. With Zion, Dejounte, Poole and Herb Jones all sidelined, the Pelicans are leaning on Murphy, Saddiq Bey, Jose Alvarado and a cadre of young bigs, but that youth has translated into energy and backdoor cover potential, whereas Minnesota — despite Edwards’ dominance and a clean injury report — has been inconsistent at putting away weaker opponents when favored by double digits. Given the Pelicans’ recent 7-3 ATS run, their home crowd, and the risk of a post-OT emotional letdown for the Wolves, taking New Orleans plus the +11.5 offers more attractive value than laying a massive road number with Minnesota, earning a B-grade recommendation on the underdog spread. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 04/12/2025 09:55am