Timberwolves vs Rockets

Houston’s response to that 20-point home loss to the Thunder should come quickly at Toyota Center, as the Rockets return at 23-15 and just 1-5 against the West’s top three while hosting a Minnesota team riding a two-game surge after edging San Antonio and blowing out Milwaukee. With Anthony Edwards ruled out (foot) and Terrence Shannon Jr. still sidelined, the Timberwolves’ perimeter shot creation thins around Mike Conley and Donte DiVincenzo, shifting more responsibility to Rudy Gobert, Naz Reid and Julius Randle to manufacture offense, while Houston is also short-handed with Fred VanVleet out for the year and both Tari Eason and Dorian Finney-Smith banged up on the wings. Even so, a Kevin Durant-led attack that owns one of the league’s best offensive ratings and has historically torched Minnesota (27.0 points per game in 49 regular-season meetings) combines with home-court urgency for a Rockets group hovering near the play-in line as the Wolves hit the 41-game mark fighting for a top-four seed, so my lean is Houston on the moneyline at -167, graded a B+ for strong win probability but only decent return at this price. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 16/01/2026 09:50([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nba/team/roster/_/name/hou/houston-rockets))

Minnesota’s offense without Edwards profiles far more methodical, and while their two-game win streak has featured impressive margins, it’s been driven by Gobert-anchored defense and balanced, half-court scoring rather than pace, which now meets a Rockets team coming off three uneven outings capped by that 91-point clunker versus OKC. Both rotations are thinned in ways that specifically sap creation and tempo—Edwards and Shannon out for the Wolves, VanVleet gone for the season and Eason and Finney-Smith sidelined for Houston—leaving Durant and Alperen Sengun to shoulder a heavy load against a Gobert-led unit that has posted elite defensive metrics with him on the floor since last season. With Minnesota essentially at the midway point of its schedule and defending a strong seed while Houston battles to stay out of the play-in, this spot feels more like a playoff-tilted chess match than a run-and-gun showcase, so I lean Under 222.5 at -110 and grade it a B pick: solid edge from the injury picture and defensive talent, but still some risk if Houston’s shooters rebound at home. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 16/01/2026 09:50([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nba/team/injuries/_/name/min/minnesota-timberwolves))

Rudy Gobert and the Timberwolves’ length give them a real chance to keep this tight despite arriving on a two-game win streak and then losing Edwards to a foot injury for this trip to Houston, while the Rockets have dropped two of their last three but still boast an explosive home attack driven by Durant, Sengun and emerging guard Reed Sheppard. Houston’s injury report—VanVleet out long term and both Eason and Finney-Smith sidelined—does trim some of Ime Udoka’s defensive versatility and forward depth, yet their 23-15 record, league-best offensive efficiency and Durant’s long track record of big regular-season nights against Minnesota tilt late-game scoring equity toward the home side against a Wolves team suddenly leaning more on Conley, Randle and secondary ballhandlers. With Minnesota hitting 41 games and entrenched in the upper half of the West and Houston jockeying to avoid the play-in, motivation should be high on both benches, but the combination of Rockets star power, offensive ceiling at home and the Edwards absence nudges me to lay the -4.5 at -110, graded a B- because spreads around two possessions can flip quickly if Minnesota’s defense dictates tempo. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 16/01/2026 09:50([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nba/team/roster/_/name/hou/houston-rockets))