Timberwolves vs Nuggets

Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets have already taken the first two meetings from Minnesota this season, including a Jokic triple-double and a 43-point eruption from Jamal Murray, and now get the Wolves at Ball Arena with a 21-8 record and 7-3 form over their last 10 despite a one-game skid. Denver is shorthanded on the wing with Aaron Gordon, Cameron Johnson and Christian Braun all out, but they still surround Jokic and Murray with reliable scoring in Tim Hardaway Jr., Peyton Watson and Jonas Valanciunas, while Minnesota may have a compromised perimeter defense if Jaden McDaniels isn’t fully right. The Wolves arrive hot behind Anthony Edwards’ 38-point demolition of the Knicks and a 10-2 surge that’s pushed them to 20-10, yet Denver’s 9-5 home mark, altitude, and Jokic’s sustained dominance against Gobert make the Nuggets a justifiable favorite at this price, so I’m backing Denver on the moneyline at -140 with a B grade for solid but not spectacular value. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 25/12/2025 09:46. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401809242/timberwolves-nuggets))

Denver’s offense has been outrageous at 125.2 points per game with Jokic orchestrating and Murray cooking, and the first two matchups with Minnesota this season landed on 241 and 235 points, but the Wolves’ recent profile leans more toward hard-fought, mid-220s contests than pure track meets. Minnesota scores 118.5 per night yet has tightened up defensively while winning 10 of 12, holding recent opponents like the Knicks, Bucks and Thunder in the low 100s, and Chris Finch’s bigger Randle–Gobert front line naturally slows pace compared with Denver’s spread attack. The Nuggets have played several shootouts lately, but missing Gordon and Johnson removes transition and cutting juice, and on a Christmas stage where both sides know this could be a playoff preview, I expect just enough half-court grind to keep this under the inflated 239.5 total; I’ll play Under 239.5 at -110 and grade it a B given the clash between Denver’s firepower and Minnesota’s improving defense. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 25/12/2025 09:46. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401809242/timberwolves-nuggets))

Anthony Edwards has repeatedly lit up Denver, hanging 26 in this season’s November loss and dropping 29 and 34 in statement wins over the Nuggets last year, and he now leads a Wolves group that’s 10-2 over its last 12 into Denver getting a full three points. The Nuggets do own a 2-0 season-series edge and a 9-5 home record, but with Gordon, Johnson and Braun sidelined their wing and forward defense is thin, while Minnesota’s depth with Julius Randle, Rudy Gobert, Naz Reid and Donte DiVincenzo has driven a three-game win streak of mostly playoff-style, tight finishes. Denver has lost two of its last three, the regular-season series number sits at Nuggets -1.5 according to analytics rather than a full -3, and Minnesota’s ability to switch lineups and let Edwards hunt mismatches against smaller or slower defenders makes the Wolves live to win and very live to cover; I like Minnesota +3 (-110) against the spread and grade it a B+ for combining real upset equity with a key number in what projects as a high-leverage Western Conference game. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 25/12/2025 09:46. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401809242/timberwolves-nuggets))