Wild vs Flames

With Minnesota riding a 10-0-2 surge and having just blanked Edmonton to start this road swing, while Calgary has dropped three of four and now sits at the bottom of the league after being outscored 11-2 over its last two games, the momentum side of this matchup clearly leans Wild. Minnesota’s injury list is not trivial — Marco Rossi and Marcus Foligno remain on IR and Vinnie Hinostroza is also sidelined — but the core of Kaprizov, Matt Boldy, Joel Eriksson Ek, Brock Faber and the tandem of Filip Gustavsson and Jesper Wallstedt is intact, whereas Calgary’s main advantage is relative health more than high-end production. Historically, Kaprizov has been productive against the Flames with seven points in ten games, and Nazem Kadri has respectable career numbers versus Minnesota but a poor plus-minus, which mirrors how Calgary often struggles to drive play against heavier Central opponents. Add in Minnesota’s top-10 power play against a Flames team that’s underwater at five-on-five and giving up nearly 3.2 goals per game, and laying a modest -125 on the hotter, deeper, better-defending side even on the road grades out as an A- position from a probability/value standpoint. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 04/12/2025 09:43am

The first thing that jumps off the page for the total is Minnesota’s current defensive heater: during this 10-0-2 run the Wild have held opponents to two or fewer goals in all but two games, with Wallstedt and Gustavsson combining for multiple recent shutouts, while Calgary has been shut out or held to one goal in two straight and remains bottom-tier in goals per game despite decent shot volume. Minnesota is missing some forward depth with Rossi and Foligno out, which subtly trims their scoring ceiling but doesn’t touch the defensive structure that’s driving this streak, and Calgary’s forward group — Kadri, Matt Coronato, Mikael Backlund and company — has struggled to finish, particularly against heavy defensive teams like the Wild that already blanked them 2-0 in November. Kaprizov’s history of success versus Calgary and Kadri’s long track record of chipping in against Minnesota both argue against a complete offensive blackout, but with the Wild allowing only about 2.6 goals per game and Calgary stuck around 2.3 for, a tightly whistled game where special teams aren’t overly lopsided still projects closer to 5 than 7. At a flat 6 with the juice leaning to the under, we’re getting a fair price on the game script most aligned with Minnesota’s identity right now, making Under 6 (-115) a solid but not elite B-grade angle. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 04/12/2025 09:43am

The Wild have not only been winning, they’ve been strangling teams territorially and on the scoreboard, and that recent 2-0 home win over these same Flames plus a 3-0 shutout in Winnipeg are good templates for how this matchup can tilt toward a multi-goal margin if Minnesota gets the first one and forces Calgary to chase. Even with Rossi, Foligno and Hinostroza out, the active roster verified via ESPN still rolls three competent scoring lines, and Kaprizov’s seven points in ten career games against Calgary suggest he’s more than capable of being the finisher that turns a one-goal edge into a two-goal cover, particularly against a Flames club whose goaltending carousel — Devin Cooley and Dustin Wolf — has been leaking nearly 3.0 goals against per night over the full season. Kadri’s long-run production versus the Wild is solid, but his ugly career plus-minus in the matchup echoes Calgary’s systemic issues against structured, physical teams; if the game follows the recent Flames pattern of falling behind early, their push in the third opens the door to the empty-netter that makes a 3-1 or 4-2 Minnesota result very live. At a generous +205 this is a higher-variance but attractive B- grade play for those willing to lean into the Wild’s current dominance rather than paying the safer moneyline price. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 04/12/2025 09:43am