Wild vs Sabres

Buffalo’s 15-2 heater over its last 17 games, including three wins in four to close this homestand, faces a Minnesota group that just limped through a 0-2-1 stretch and now opens a road swing on short rest. With Matt Boldy, Joel Eriksson Ek and Jonas Brodin all out, the Wild lose a first-line finisher, their matchup-driving two-way center and their top defensive stopper, forcing heavy minutes onto a thinner spine even though ESPN’s rosters confirm the projected NHL.com lines are otherwise at full strength. Kirill Kaprizov and Mats Zuccarello have historically punished Buffalo – both hit the scoresheet in last season’s 4-1 win – but the Sabres’ top unit of Tage Thompson and Alex Tuch is rolling at home and finally getting consistent support from deeper lines, while Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen draws the more stable defensive environment than rookie Jesper Wallstedt behind an undermanned Wild blue line. Minnesota’s strong all-time mark in Buffalo and its superior goals-against average keep this from being a slam-dunk, yet with the Sabres 16-6-2 at home and climbing the Eastern standings while the Wild try to protect a top-three seed in the West without key contributors, laying the modest price at -125 instead of taking Minnesota at 105 looks like the better combination of win probability and value. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 17/01/2026 09:23

Recent form points toward offense: Buffalo’s hot run has been fueled by averaging well over three goals per night during this 15-2 tear, while Minnesota, even in a 0-2-1 skid, continues to generate enough chances to maintain its season mark just above three goals per game. The Wild’s injury list matters more to their defensive ceiling than their attack, with Brodin and Zach Bogosian out of the top four, Eriksson Ek unavailable as a key penalty killer, and a young Wallstedt likely starting in a tough road building, which raises Buffalo’s scoring floor even if Minnesota’s structure is usually sound. On the other side, the Sabres still have several depth injuries, but with Thompson, Tuch and Zach Benson driving play and multiple ex-Wild forwards (Jason Zucker, Jordan Greenway) familiar with Minnesota’s tendencies, their offense should remain dangerous, especially in a game with clear playoff implications for two teams already past the 41-game mark and jockeying for conference position. With both clubs sitting around a combined six goals per game on the season, a power-play edge for Minnesota, and empty-net risk tilted toward a desperate Wild team if they trail late, Over 6 at -125 – with a decent chance of at least a push on exactly six – gets the nod over the Under at -105. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 17/01/2026 09:23

The streak contrast again sets the stage here: a Sabres team that has won 15 of 17 and owns a 16-6-2 home record is far more likely to control this game than a Wild squad that just went 0-2-1 and is missing three of its most important all-situations players, which erodes Minnesota’s ability to lock down one-goal margins the way it typically does. While the Wild’s historical edge in the series and their generally tight defensive profile argue for taking the safer Minnesota +1.5 at -225, that price is steep given the current injury situation on their blue line and down the middle, and it offers limited payout for a team stepping into a hostile building against a confident offense. With Thompson and Tuch both capable of breaking games open – and having past success against Minnesota’s core – plus Buffalo’s improved special teams and the added late empty-net equity if the Wild chase points for Western playoff positioning, there’s enough blowout potential to justify a smaller stake on the Sabres -1.5 at 190 as a higher-variance complement to the moneyline. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 17/01/2026 09:23