Timberwolves vs Hawks

Anthony Edwards and the Timberwolves come in with six wins in their last 10 and 11 in their last 15, facing a Hawks group mired in a seven-game losing streak and just 5-11 at home. With Trae Young, Jalen Johnson, Kristaps Porzingis and N’Faly Dante all ruled out, Atlanta is leaning heavily on Onyeka Okongwu’s breakout stretch against a Minnesota core of Edwards, Julius Randle and Rudy Gobert that’s largely intact and fresh off a 35-point road demolition of Chicago. Edwards has historically produced solid all-around numbers versus Atlanta, and Minnesota’s top-tier defense should travel better than Atlanta’s shorthanded offense, making the Wolves the justified favorite even if the -190 price slightly caps the value. I’m backing Minnesota on the moneyline with a solid but not elite value profile at this number. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 31/12/2025 09:38

The Hawks’ recent games have turned into track meets, but with Young and Porzingis sidelined and Okongwu now anchoring a more interior-focused attack, this offense loses a ton of pull-up shooting and spacing just as it runs into Minnesota’s improved defense. The Wolves’ last-10 profile is more balanced than explosive, and their season scoring averages, combined with Atlanta’s, sit notably below the lofty 243.5 total, especially when you factor in Minnesota’s ability to limit opponent efficiency and control tempo on the road. Both teams have certainly cleared high numbers at times, but the current injury report plus Minnesota’s defensive chops suggest more half-court possessions and fewer late-game shootout sequences than the number implies. I’m leaning to the Under 243.5 with a strong combination of matchup support and number value at -110. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 31/12/2025 09:38

Rudy Gobert’s rim protection and Minnesota’s length on the wings give them a clear defensive ceiling edge against an Atlanta team that’s been bleeding points during its seven-game skid, but the spread tax is real with the Wolves only 13-20 ATS and already favored on the road. The Hawks have been more competitive against the number overall, and with Okongwu historically productive versus Minnesota’s front line and role players like Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Zaccharie Risacher capable of swinging quarters, backdoor risk at +4.5 is very live even with key stars out. Still, given Atlanta’s thin rotation, poor home record, and recent double-digit losses, I’ll side with the healthier, deeper Timberwolves to eventually create separation and cover -4.5 more often than not, though the combination of volatility and spread history keeps this to a modest C+ edge. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 31/12/2025 09:38