Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets

Tua Tagovailoa brings a three-game Miami win streak into MetLife Stadium, with the Dolphins having won four of their last five after digging out of a 1-6 start, while the Jets have quietly taken three of their last five following an 0-7 opening under Aaron Glenn. Even with Tagovailoa’s well-documented 0-7 career record when kickoff temperatures are 46 degrees or colder and a forecast in the low-40s, his 6-0 mark as a starter versus New York and Miami’s 5-1 run in the series tilt the matchup toward the visitors, especially against a Jets defense that still has no interceptions through 12 games and is managing injuries across the front seven and secondary. With Tyrod Taylor now starting and providing more stability but limited downfield juice for a 3-9 Jets team that is effectively out of the playoff race, the Dolphins’ turnover edge, pass-rush impact led by tackling machine Jordyn Brooks, and greater urgency to keep faint AFC Wild Card hopes alive make Miami the more trustworthy side on the moneyline at -159 over a Jets group still searching for week-to-week consistency. I’ll back the Miami Dolphins on the moneyline at -159 with an A- grade, balancing a strong matchup and motivation edge against some cold-weather downside on the road. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 05/12/2025 12:02am

The total at 41.5 comes with conflicting signals: Miami has cashed five straight Unders during its 4-1 surge as Mike McDaniel leans more on De'Von Achane and a tightening defense, while the Jets’ recent wins have featured a mix of late offensive flurries, special-teams sparks, and long scoring droughts under Taylor. A low-40s afternoon with light wind in an open MetLife Stadium should still chill the passing games enough to matter for Tagovailoa, who is in the midst of the worst passer rating season of his career and has historically struggled in colder conditions, and for a Jets offense that has relied on improvisation more than sustained efficiency. Add in multiple Jets defenders nursing injuries in the front seven and secondary, plus a Dolphins defense keyed by Jordyn Brooks’ sideline-to-sideline tackling that is better positioned to force long drives, and this shapes up more like a methodical AFC East grinder than a continuation of the recent higher-scoring meetings, especially with Miami’s playoff hopes hinging on avoiding mistakes rather than pushing tempo. I’ll play Under 41.5 at -112 with a B+ grade, respecting the volatility from past shootouts but siding with current offensive form, defensive trends, and weather to keep this in the high-30s or lower. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 05/12/2025 12:02am

With the spread set at Miami -3 (-100) against New York +3 (-123), the question is whether the Dolphins’ edges can push this beyond a field goal in a divisional road spot where they’re just 1-5 straight up away from home this season. Tagovailoa’s 6-0 record as a starter versus the Jets, Miami’s strong 11-4 ATS run in the series (including 5-2 ATS in its last seven trips to face the Jets), and the matchup advantage of Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Achane attacking a Jets defense that has yet to record an interception and is managing injuries to key front-seven and secondary pieces suggest the Dolphins can create enough explosive plays to separate late even if the passing game is somewhat muted by the cold. The counterweight is a Jets team that sits 7-5 ATS overall, now gets a veteran stabilizer in Taylor at quarterback, and has a pass rush that can still bother Miami’s protection in what profiles as another choppy, field-position-focused MetLife game, but the combination of Miami’s three-game win streak, superior turnover profile, and much clearer AFC playoff path makes laying a flat -3 more appealing than swallowing heavier juice with the home underdog. I’ll lay the points with the Miami Dolphins -3 at -100 for a B grade, acknowledging real risk of a one- or two-point margin but siding with quarterback edge, series history, and motivation to carry them across the number. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 05/12/2025 12:02am