Dolphins vs Patriots

New England has stacked a 13-3 record and two-game winning streak on the back of Drake Maye’s top-tier production and a defense allowing barely more than 19 points per game, while Miami limps to 7-9 with a 2-5 road mark and a rookie quarterback in Quinn Ewers behind a banged-up skill group that includes questionable tags for Jaylen Waddle, De'Von Achane, and Darren Waller. Layer in the cold but calm Foxborough weather in the high 20s with light wind, New England’s earlier head-to-head win in Miami behind multiple Maye touchdowns, and the Patriots’ strong motivation to solidify playoff seeding versus an eliminated Dolphins team evaluating young talent, and the heavy -650 price still tracks with a true win probability north of the implied 86–87 percent range. From a value standpoint this is rich chalk and more suited to parlays or as a hedge than as a standalone wager, but in terms of sheer likelihood of cashing, Patriots moneyline is the safest angle on the board. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 02/01/2026 11:57

The total of 45.5 sits in a range where game environment and context matter, and several factors tilt this toward a slightly lower-scoring script: the forecast calls for temperatures in the mid-to-high 20s with minimal wind at an outdoor Gillette Stadium, the Patriots’ defense has quietly been one of the league’s stingier units while Miami’s offense has been inconsistent and now turns to Quinn Ewers with key weapons nursing injuries, and New England’s path as a double-digit home favorite often involves leaning on the run and bleeding clock once ahead rather than trading explosives. Historical meetings between these teams have produced some shootouts, but that was with more established quarterbacks on both sides; here, the Dolphins’ implied team total sits in the mid-teens at market books, and if Ewers struggles in the cold against a top defense, it’s easy to envision the Patriots winning comfortably in a 27–13 or 28–17 type contest that sneaks under this number. The under carries typical total volatility and some risk of garbage-time points, but the combination of weather, Miami’s offensive uncertainty, and New England’s game-management tendencies late in the season makes Under 45.5 at -110 a modest value. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 02/01/2026 11:57

Despite the clear mismatch in records and quarterback stability, catching +10.5 with Miami in a divisional game has appeal, especially with a total in the mid-40s, cold conditions that can compress scoring, and New England already having clinched the division and potentially dialing back aggression if they build an early cushion. The Dolphins have won three of their last five and played the Patriots to a one-score result in their 2025 matchup, with De'Von Achane and Jaylen Waddle both showing they can generate chunk plays against this defense when healthy, while Quinn Ewers’ arm talent at least offers backdoor-cover potential even if his inexperience shows early. On the other side, New England’s offense is efficient but not always hyper-explosive, and if they skew run-heavy to protect Maye and key pass-catchers ahead of the postseason, long, methodical drives shorten the game and make it harder to win by multiple touchdowns. The Patriots remain the most likely team to win comfortably, but in terms of point-spread value, taking the divisional underdog plus double digits at -110 earns the edge. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 02/01/2026 11:57