Grizzlies vs Spurs

San Antonio rides a strong 13-6 start into this rematch, but does so on a modest one-game skid while Memphis arrives on a three-game winning streak that’s featured road wins in New Orleans, Los Angeles and Sacramento. With Ja Morant ruled out, Memphis remains heavily dependent on Jaren Jackson Jr., Santi Aldama and the suddenly dominant Zach Edey, whereas the Spurs are navigating their own injury stack with Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle and Jordan McLaughlin sidelined but still leaning on De’Aaron Fox, Devin Vassell and Harrison Barnes for shot creation. In the first meeting two weeks ago in this same building, Fox dropped 26 and Barnes 23 in a 111-101 Spurs win despite both All-NBA bigs being out, underscoring San Antonio’s perimeter advantage at home. Even acknowledging Memphis’ improved cohesion and size edge on the glass, I still trust the deeper Spurs rotation and home-court metrics enough to back San Antonio on the moneyline at -210, though the price knocks this down to a B- grade on value. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 02/12/2025 09:46am

Memphis has heated up offensively during its three-game road surge, topping 112 points in each win while Edey’s emergence (32 points and 17 boards in Sacramento) and Jackson’s steady scoring have pushed the Grizzlies’ season average into the low 110s. San Antonio, even without Wembanyama, remains one of the West’s higher-octane attacks at nearly 119 points per game behind Fox’s 24.1, Castle’s table-setting when healthy and a deep wing group of Vassell, Keldon Johnson and Barnes that just hung 139 on Denver and routinely lives beyond 115 at home. The first Spurs–Grizzlies meeting closed at only 212 total points, but that came with Memphis in a slump and both sides shooting poorly; recent form for both offenses, combined with San Antonio’s pace and the defensive downgrade from missing Wembanyama inside and Morant at the point of attack, nudges my projection slightly above the 231 number. I’ll take Over 231 at -110 with a B grade, respecting the offensive trends but tempering confidence because of the star absences. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 02/12/2025am

Memphis catching +5.5 feels attractive given its current three-game winning streak and how much more comfortable this group looks on the road now than when it lost by 10 in San Antonio on November 18. The Grizzlies are still short-handed without Morant, Brandon Clarke and several depth guards, but Edey’s rapid leap, Jackson’s 18.3 points per game and Vince Williams Jr.’s playmaking have stabilized the offense and glass enough to keep them competitive against a Spurs team missing its best player (Wembanyama) plus key guards Castle and McLaughlin. San Antonio’s 13-6 record and strong home form justify favorite status, yet their recent results without Wembanyama have involved tighter margins and more perimeter-heavy shot profiles that can swing quickly if Fox or Vassell has an off shooting night, while Memphis just proved it can grind out close finishes against playoff-caliber opponents in New Orleans, L.A. and Sacramento. With the injury gap slightly favoring Memphis relative to market perception and the earlier matchup already landing near this spread despite the Grizzlies’ then-colder form, I’m taking Memphis +5.5 at -115 with a B+ grade. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 02/12/2025 09:46am