Grizzlies vs Pelicans

Zion Williamson and the Pelicans get a rare home matchup against a Grizzlies team missing Ja Morant plus key rotation pieces Santi Aldama, Zach Edey, Brandon Clarke, Ty Jerome and Scotty Pippen Jr., leaving Jaren Jackson Jr. to shoulder an outsized load for a group that’s lost four straight but still clings to faint play-in hopes while New Orleans has dropped seven in a row and sits tied for last in the West. Zion has historically produced about 21 points, 6-plus rebounds and nearly 4 assists per game against Memphis, giving New Orleans a reliable half-court advantage inside against a severely thinned Memphis front line. Even in November’s 133–128 OT Cup win here, Memphis needed a monster 21-and-15 from Edey next to 27 from Jackson to escape; with Edey unavailable and the Pelicans’ current starting core of Trey Murphy III, Herb Jones, Saddiq Bey, Zion and rookie big Derik Queen largely intact, the matchup tilts slightly more toward the home side this time despite New Orleans’ turmoil. Laying -150 on the Pelicans moneyline is more about fading Memphis’ injury pile and lack of creation around Jackson than trusting New Orleans’ overall résumé, so this grades as a solid but not elite edge: B for probability and middling price. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 30/01/2026 09:49

Memphis’ offense is badly capped without Morant, Aldama and Edey, and that showed in Houston when the Grizzlies shot just 37.1% and mustered 99 points even with Jackson and Aldama leading the way, while Aldama is now ruled out for this trip. On the season, Memphis games are averaging about 231 total points 114.8 scored, 116.3 allowed and New Orleans contests sit in a similar band 110.5 for, 120.6 against, both below this 234.5 total, and the Pelicans’ struggling half-court creation without Dejounte Murray only increases their game-to-game volatility on offense. Recent Grizzlies–Pelicans meetings have exploded into the 250s—like last year’s 133–128 OT Cup game and a 139–126 Memphis win—but those involved healthier versions of both rosters with more guard firepower than we’ll see tonight, whereas this version leans heavily on Zion, Murphy and Jackson flanked by defense-first role players. With both teams on extended losing streaks fighting fatigue and depth issues as they hit the midpoint of the season, the script points slightly more toward a choppier, whistle-heavy game than a true track meet, so I’m on Under 234.5 at -118 with a B-grade for combining statistical support with some injury-driven uncertainty. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 30/01/2026 09:49

The Pelicans’ current starting five of Trey Murphy III, Herb Jones, Saddiq Bey, Zion Williamson and Derik Queen has real size and scoring balance, and even in a lost season they’ve been competitive enough that their -10.1 point differential somewhat overstates how poor they are when that group is intact, whereas Memphis—despite a far better differential overall—earned a lot of that with a healthier frontcourt than the one traveling tonight. With Morant, Aldama, Edey and Clarke all sidelined, the Grizzlies’ late-game offense often devolves into Jackson isolation and spot-up shooting from a rotating cast of role players, a big reason they’ve blown leads and dropped four straight, while New Orleans’ home advantage at Smoothie King Center and Zion’s strong historical numbers against Memphis give them a higher ceiling in crunch time than their 12–37 record suggests. Memphis did steal an OT win here in November behind Jackson’s 27 and a dominant Edey performance, but removing Edey’s interior presence and Aldama’s stretch scoring from the equation while New Orleans still has Zion, Murphy and a deeper bench that includes Jordan Poole makes it more likely that a Pelicans straight-up win comes by more than a bucket, even if their seven-game skid and coaching upheaval keep this from being a top-tier edge. I’ll lay the -2.5 at -118 with New Orleans for a B- grade, leaning into their matchup and health advantages but respecting how volatile two desperate, sub-.500 teams can be. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 30/01/2026 09:49