Grizzlies vs Timberwolves

Minnesota’s 7-1 surge over its last eight and 9-4 home mark set the tone here against a Memphis team that has stabilized but still travels just 6-7, and the Timberwolves’ top-10 profile on both ends should carry weight in their own building. With Mike Conley ruled out and Anthony Edwards questionable, the Wolves will lean more on Julius Randle’s on-ball creation and Rudy Gobert’s interior dominance, which is magnified by the Grizzlies missing Zach Edey and potentially Brandon Clarke as frontcourt counters. Even if Ja Morant (questionable) suits up after already torching Minnesota in their 2022 playoff series with 21.5 points and 10.5 assists per night, the healthier, deeper side is still Minnesota, though the steep -301 price and Memphis’ recent 7-3 upswing cap this as more of a solid chalk play than a premium edge. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 17/12/2025 09:38am

Ja Morant’s tempo and Anthony Edwards’ shot diet suggest pace, but recent numbers tilt toward the Under with these versions of Memphis and Minnesota combining to score several points fewer than 233 per game while their opponents also sit well below that threshold. The Grizzlies’ last 10 contests have averaged total scores in the low 230s, and now they’re down key rotation pieces like Zach Edey, multiple guards, and possibly Morant himself, while the Wolves could again be without Edwards and will be missing Conley, funneling more offense through a sturdier half-court core of Randle, Gobert, and Naz Reid. Given Minnesota’s top-tier defense, Memphis’ improved but still inconsistent attack, and the fact that even recent Grizzlies–Wolves shootouts have leaned on healthier stars, this inflated 233 looks like a touch too high, making the Under 233 (-106) a value-lean that grades out slightly better than the moneyline. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 17/12/2025 09:38am

Memphis rolls in having won seven of its last 10 and covering frequently in that stretch, and getting +7.5 with that kind of current form against a Timberwolves group missing Conley and possibly Edwards feels generous even in a tough building. The Grizzlies’ attack is more functional again with Morant trending toward a return and Jaren Jackson Jr. stretching the floor, and this core has historically battled Minnesota tight, including multiple one- or two-possession games in last season’s series where Morant put up near triple-double lines and Edwards averaged over 30 points in their last three meetings. Minnesota’s average home margin hovers in that same 7–8 point range, so with the Wolves’ primary initiator out, their leading scorer banged up, and Memphis’ recent ATS profile plus deeper guard rotation, grabbing the underdog to keep this within two or three possessions offers better risk-reward than laying the big number with the favorite. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 17/12/2025 09:38am