Raiders vs Chargers

Justin Herbert and the Chargers enter at 7-4 after having a three-game winning streak snapped by Jacksonville, while the 2-9 Raiders are riding a five-game skid and have dropped nine straight divisional games, making this a classic desperate-contender-versus-spiraling-outsider setup. Despite season-ending blows along the Bolts’ offensive line (Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt) and a backfield reshuffle after Najee Harris’ Achilles injury, Los Angeles has still produced a top-half passing attack and a positive point differential, whereas Las Vegas just fired offensive coordinator Chip Kelly after ranking near the bottom of the league in scoring and allowing 10 sacks in their latest loss. With Geno Smith expected to start for the Raiders and Herbert under center for the Chargers, per current projections, the QB edge is substantial, and Herbert has already torched Las Vegas in recent meetings, including a 346-yard, two-touchdown performance that helped knock the Raiders out of last year’s playoff race. Historically, the Chargers have dominated this matchup at SoFi, winning 16 of the past 22 home games in the series and four of the last five overall, and with Jim Harbaugh’s team firmly in the AFC playoff hunt against an opponent already eliminated from the division race, it’s hard to see Los Angeles letting this one slip straight up. At a moneyline price of -556, the win probability is high but the payout is thin, so backing the Chargers on the moneyline earns a B+ grade for being very likely to cash but offering limited monetary upside. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 28/11/2025 11:53am

This total sits at 40.5 with implied team scores around 25.5 for the Chargers and 15.5 for the Raiders, which lines up closely with season-long production: Los Angeles is averaging 22.4 points per game while Las Vegas is stuck at 15.0 and just fired its offensive coordinator after weeks of red-zone ineptitude and pass-protection meltdowns. The Raiders have been a strong road Under team (7-1 to the Under in their last eight away from home), largely because Geno Smith and a battered offensive line struggle to sustain drives, and now interim play-caller Greg Olson is likely to lean on rookie back Ashton Jeanty and shorter concepts to protect a unit that just allowed 10 sacks. On the other side, Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman have built a more run-oriented Chargers offense around Kimani Vidal, with Herbert efficient but not in constant shootout scripts, and injuries in the backfield plus offensive-line losses further encourage a ball-control approach. While Los Angeles has seen more Overs than Unders at SoFi recently, this specific matchup features a moribund Raiders offense, a Chargers defense allowing just 21.6 points per game, and clear motivation for the home side to salt away a businesslike win rather than chase style points, all of which tilts the game script toward a controlled, lower-possession contest that lands under the number more often than not. Under 40.5 at -108 gets a B grade: a solid probabilities-plus-price combination, but still vulnerable if Raiders turnovers gift the Chargers short fields and cheap points. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 28/11/2025 11:53am

Against the spread, this is where things get interesting: the Chargers are laying -9.5 at home despite being just 2-6 ATS over their last eight overall, yet they’ve covered seven straight against AFC West foes and have historically handled the Raiders comfortably at SoFi, where Las Vegas is 1-4 against the Chargers and 0-6 in the building when fans are in the stands. The matchup in the trenches is ugly for the Raiders, who have key offensive linemen like Kolton Miller and center Jackson Powers-Johnson on injured reserve and are coming off a 10-sack debacle, now facing Khalil Mack (12.5 career sacks vs. his former team) and a Chargers front that just watched Jacksonville dominate them and should be in full rebound mode. Even with season-long losses like Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt, Harbaugh’s staff has generally protected Herbert well enough at home, and with Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston both having produced big games against Las Vegas in the past, Los Angeles has multiple avenues to build a two-score cushion once the Raiders are forced away from their run game. Vegas’ nine-game divisional losing streak, three straight losses to the Chargers, and elimination from realistic playoff contention contrast sharply with a Bolts team fighting for seeding in a tight AFC race, but divisional familiarity and backdoor potential in the 7–14 point range keep this from being a slam-dunk. Laying -9.5 with the Chargers at -110 earns a B- grade: the talent, matchup, and motivation all point to a double-digit home win, but the number is big enough — and the Chargers’ recent ATS form shaky enough — that volatility is a real concern. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 28/11/2025 11:53am