Rams vs Bears

Matthew Stafford brings a 12-5 Rams team into Soldier Field on a two-game surge (Week 18 over Arizona plus the late Wild Card escape in Carolina), while the Bears snapped a two-game regular-season skid with Caleb Williams’ 31-27 comeback against Green Bay in their own Wild Card thriller, so momentum is fairly even but experience is not. Chicago’s injury picture is meaningfully worse: T.J. Edwards and Ozzy Trapilo are done for the year, their corner depth is thinned, and both DJ Moore and Rome Odunze are managing lower-body issues, whereas the Rams’ key names — Stafford (finger), Kyren Williams, and Puka Nacua — are practicing and playing through mostly minor knocks behind an offensive core that just led the league in total yardage and receiving touchdowns. Stafford’s lifetime 12-10 record against Chicago and his First-Team All-Pro 2025 campaign (4,700+ yards and 46 TDs) pair with that Nacua-Adams duo against a Bears defense that thrives on picks rather than consistent pressure, which becomes harder if the Rams’ protection holds up. With the winner headed to the NFC Championship Game against the Seahawks-49ers winner, Sean McVay’s big-game résumé, the Rams’ top-10 pass rush, and Chicago’s reliance on late-game chaos all tilt this matchup slightly more toward a professional, wire-to-wire Rams performance than another Bears miracle. Laying -200 on Los Angeles is pricey and the frigid road environment always carries variance, but as a blend of win probability and risk it grades out as a solid, if not spectacular, position. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 16/01/2026 11:39

With kickoff in the low-20s Fahrenheit and a forecast calling for clouds, light snow at times, and lakefront wind at an open-air Soldier Field, this total of 48.5 has to be filtered through true cold-weather playoff football, not a neutral-site dome script. The Rams’ offense is undeniably explosive after leading the league in yards and receiving scores behind Stafford and Nacua, and they just played a 34-31 track meet in Carolina, while Chicago’s attack has turned into a legitimate big-play unit under Williams with repeated high-scoring wins and a 31-point Wild Card comeback on the board. But the Bears’ defense led the NFL with 23 interceptions, which tends to throttle efficiency even when it creates occasional short fields, and their passing game is likely to be less vertical with Odunze gutting through a foot fracture and Moore limited by a knee in sub-freezing conditions against a live Rams rush front. On the other side, Kyren Williams’ 1,200+ rushing yards and Chicago’s run-heavy scripts in recent cold games both point toward more ground volume, longer drives, and some stalled red-zone trips as coaches dial back aggression in the wind. All of that still allows for spikes of scoring, yet it shapes more like a 24-21 or 27-20 kind of night than a full-on shootout, so the Under 48.5 at -110 gets a modest value nod despite the quarterback talent on the field. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 16/01/2026 11:39

The market is correctly installing the Rams as favorites, but +3.5 on Chicago bakes in a hook that fits how both teams have actually been playing: the Bears finished 6-2 at Soldier Field in the regular season, have now stacked another home playoff win, and their late-game profile — from the “Windy City Miracle” over Green Bay in Week 16 to last week’s 18-point Wild Card rally — consistently drags opponents into one-score endings. Los Angeles is coming off back-to-back wins, yet five of its last seven have been decided by seven or fewer points, and McVay’s defense will be dealing with a quarterback in Williams who is comfortable extending plays plus a run game that can shorten the contest even if Chicago’s receiver room isn’t close to 100 percent. Historically, the last four Rams-Bears meetings are split 2-2 with just a 15-point aggregate edge for L.A., reinforcing that these franchises rarely separate much on the scoreboard even when the Rams have the superior offense. Add in a Bears secondary that leads the league in interceptions against a high-volume passing attack, a Rams offensive line that has been nicked up on the interior, and harsh January conditions that usually narrow margins, and a script where Stafford edges out a field-goal win but Chicago cashes the +3.5 looks very live. At essentially close-to-even juice, that combination of likely game state and price earns Bears +3.5 a B+ grade. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 16/01/2026 11:39