Rams vs Falcons

Matthew Stafford and the Rams come into Atlanta having just had their two-game win streak snapped in that overtime classic at Seattle, but they’ve still clinched a playoff berth and own one of the league’s most efficient offenses, averaging over 30 points per game while allowing under 20. The Falcons, by contrast, were eliminated weeks ago after a midseason five-game skid and now ride a three-game home losing streak at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, where they’ve been outscored on average despite solid efforts from Bijan Robinson and Kyle Pitts. With Michael Penix Jr. done for the year and Kirk Cousins now under center, Atlanta’s passing game has stabilized but still lacks L.A.’s ceiling, and the Falcons’ secondary is further compromised by injuries like Mike Hughes’ absence just as Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams arrive in peak form. Los Angeles has taken two of the last three in this matchup and profiles as the more complete, motivated team, though Rams injuries to Davante Adams and along the offensive line keep this from being an automatic A-grade play. I’m backing Rams -375 on the moneyline to get it done on the road, graded a B+ for strong win probability but relatively modest payout. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 29/12/2025 09:30

With the total sitting at 49.5, this sets up as a classic “good offense vs. grind-it-out opponent” clash that can still finish just under the number. The Rams’ attack has been explosive behind Stafford, Nacua and Kyren Williams, but they’re facing a Falcons team that prefers to lean on Robinson and the run game, averaging only about 20 points per contest and shortening games with volume carries. Atlanta’s defense is soft against the run but respectable against the pass, and with Penix out, Cousins has been efficient rather than aggressive, which points to longer drives and fewer true shootout scripts. On the other side, L.A. has already locked in a playoff spot and may be more inclined to protect a banged-up supporting cast (including Adams and multiple linemen) than to chase style points in the dome, especially if they build a second-half lead. Given the Rams’ top-10 scoring defense and the Falcons’ inconsistency finishing drives, I like this landing in the mid‑40s more often than not, so Under 49.5 at -110 gets a solid B grade for a reasonable edge without being a slam dunk. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 29/12/2025 09:30

The spread at Rams -7.5 is trickier than the moneyline, but L.A. still looks like the right side against a Falcons team that’s 6-9 overall and just 4-6 in its last 10 at home, including three straight losses in Atlanta. Stafford’s group has gone 11-4 against the spread this season and is 3-2 ATS laying more than a touchdown, pairing a top-five scoring offense with a defense that has held opponents under 20 points per game, while Atlanta’s offense has hovered near the bottom third of the league despite big years from Robinson, Pitts and Drake London. Losing Penix for the season forces the Falcons to ride Cousins in a passing game that may struggle to keep pace if the Rams’ front, even with some injuries on defense, can handle the run and exploit a banged-up Atlanta secondary missing Hughes. The main concern—and why this is only a B-—is the classic backdoor risk if McVay eases off the gas with playoff seeding largely secure, but over four quarters L.A.’s efficiency edge and Atlanta’s recent home form point slightly toward Rams -7.5 (-105) covering more often than not. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 29/12/2025 09:30