Los Angeles Kings vs Tampa Bay Lightning

Nikita Kucherov has feasted on the Kings over his career, and with Tampa Bay back home after a tough road swing, the Lightning moneyline at -195 is justified despite the short price. Los Angeles rolls into Tampa on a four-game losing streak and on the second leg of a back-to-back, with Darcy Kuemper on injured reserve and Phillip Danault sidelined, leaving Anton Forsberg and a thinner center group to handle a deep Lightning attack. Tampa’s defense is banged up without Victor Hedman, Ryan McDonagh and Erik Cernak, but Andrei Vasilevskiy has just been activated and the Bolts still carry a strong goal differential and a potent top six featuring Kucherov, Brandon Hagel and Jake Guentzel. Historically, Tampa has dominated this matchup on home ice and Vasilevskiy owns an excellent record versus Los Angeles, while the Kings’ recent scoring slump and heavy minutes on their top pair make it harder for them to fully exploit Tampa’s blue-line injuries. The price limits the value, but combining home ice, rest advantage and high-end goaltending upside makes Lightning -195 a reasonable favorite position at a B grade. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 18/12/2025 09:33am

With the total set at 5.5, the Under at +100 leans into two teams that have been better defensively than offensively so far, especially at five-on-five. The Lightning are allowing well under three goals per game behind structured defensive play and either Vasilevskiy’s elite ceiling or Jonas Johansson’s competent backup work, while the Kings are scoring under three per game and come in on a four-game skid where their finishing has dried up. Los Angeles is also without Kuemper and will likely ride Forsberg again on a back-to-back, which can slow their transition game and push them toward a more conservative road script, particularly against a Tampa team missing its top defenseman Hedman and several other regulars on the blue line. Recent head-to-heads between these clubs have skewed low-scoring, and the market’s modest total plus plus-money on the Under offers solid value in a matchup where both coaches have reason to shorten the bench and lean on their top defensive pieces. That overall profile makes Under 5.5 at +100 a B+ grade play. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 18/12/2025 09:33am

On the puckline, Kings +1.5 at -160 grades out as the best combination of win probability and price, even while expecting Tampa Bay to take the game outright more often than not. Los Angeles has been one of the league’s better road teams, and despite their current four-game slide, most of those losses have been by tight margins, which fits with their overall profile of modest scoring but solid defensive structure. The Kings’ injuries to Kuemper and Danault hurt their ceiling yet don’t completely collapse their ability to keep things close, whereas Tampa’s battered defense corps without Hedman, McDonagh and Cernak makes multi-goal separation harder to sustain even with Kucherov, Guentzel, Brayden Point and Hagel driving offense. Historically this matchup has featured strong goaltending from Vasilevskiy and relatively low totals, which further supports the likelihood of a one-goal result that would cash a Kings +1.5 ticket while still aligning with a Lightning moneyline win and an under on the total. With a high chance of covering and a still-manageable price, Kings +1.5 (-160) earns an A- grade. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 18/12/2025 09:33am