Chargers vs Patriots

On the moneyline, the Patriots at -200 are the side to back, even if the price isn’t a bargain. New England closed the regular season at 14-3, locking up the AFC’s 2-seed and finishing with one of the league’s stingiest defenses after a 38-10 demolition of Miami that underlined how dangerous their run game and rookie passer Drake Maye have become. The Chargers, meanwhile, arrive as the 7-seed off back-to-back losses to Houston and Denver after previously ripping off a four-game win streak, and they’ve leaned heavily on a defense that allowed just 20.0 points per game while their offense sat middle of the pack. Crucially, Los Angeles’ offense is compromised up front: both franchise tackles Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater are out for the year, projected starting LT Jamaree Salyer has been nursing a hamstring, and the latest injury reports list edge rusher Bud Dupree and starting RB Omarion Hampton as DNPs, leaving Justin Herbert behind a patched line and without a fully healthy backfield. New England has their own concerns, including multiple offensive linemen and key defenders on the injury report, but Maye enters with elite efficiency numbers and a deep skill group, and the Patriots’ defensive front is well-positioned to stress that shaky Chargers protection. Herbert, Derwin James, and a well-coached Chargers defense absolutely give L.A. upset equity—especially remembering their 40-7 blowout of New England in 2024—but with the Patriots’ current form, home-field advantage, and healthier core pieces at the offensive touch positions, laying the price on New England’s moneyline earns a B+ grade for solid win probability at modest but not spectacular value. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 09/01/2026 11:51. ([en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Los_Angeles_Chargers_season?utm_source=openai))

The total at 46 feels a tick high given how these teams have actually played, so the lean is to Under 46 at -110. The Chargers profile as a classic under team: their offense averaged just 21.6 points per game with middling efficiency, but their defense ranked top-10 in both yards and points allowed and top-6 in EPA/play, consistently dragging games into slower, grindier scripts despite Herbert’s talent. New England brings a more explosive offensive ceiling—topping 6,400 total yards and 50-plus touchdowns on the year and dropping 38 on Miami in Week 18—but their identity down the stretch has been about balance and control, riding a deep backfield and an efficient, on-schedule passing game from Maye instead of constant vertical aggression. Defensively, the Patriots allowed only 18.8 points per game and repeatedly held opponents under 23, and they now face a Chargers attack that is walking into Foxborough with a battered offensive line and a banged-up feature back, which should enhance New England’s ability to squeeze drives and finish in the red zone. With both defenses capable of generating pressure without blitzing and forcing long-field drives, and with playoff urgency likely encouraging Jim Harbaugh and Mike Vrabel to lean into field position and fourth-quarter clock control rather than shootout football, a game landing in the low-to-mid 40s is more attractive than one that sails past the mid-40s. Under 46 gets a B grade: a solid, matchup-driven angle but one that still must respect both quarterbacks’ ability to spike scoring if protection unexpectedly holds up. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 09/01/2026 11:51. ([patspulpit.com](https://www.patspulpit.com/new-england-patriots-nfl-playoffs/118431/chargers-record-injuries-players-to-watch-nfl-wild-card-playoffs))

Against the spread, taking the Chargers +3.5 at -110 is the more appealing side, even while expecting New England to survive and advance. The Patriots’ combination of a top-tier defense and an efficient, balanced offense makes them rightful favorites, but this matchup sets up for a one-score game: the Chargers have lived in that range all year, with a long list of three- to seven-point decisions driven by a top-5 defense in yards allowed and a conservative, clock-controlling offense that shortens games. Herbert’s production dipped relative to his peak, yet he still cleared 3,700 passing yards with 26 touchdowns despite constant offensive line shuffling, and his history of keeping games competitive—even when pressured—matters here opposite a Patriots unit that has feasted more on structure and depth than on sheer pass-rush star power. Los Angeles’ injury issues up front and in the backfield are real, but New England is also navigating injuries along the offensive line and at linebacker, and the Chargers still bring premium playmakers at receiver and an impact safety in Derwin James, who has already wrecked a Patriots game plan once before. In a high-stakes wild card where the Patriots’ edge is more about consistency than overwhelming firepower, a result like New England by three or less (or even a late Herbert-led backdoor cover) is well within the distribution, making the extra hook on +3.5 valuable. That balance of underdog cover potential versus a strong but not invincible favorite earns Chargers +3.5 a B grade. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 09/01/2026 11:51. ([patspulpit.com](https://www.patspulpit.com/new-england-patriots-nfl-playoffs/118431/chargers-record-injuries-players-to-watch-nfl-wild-card-playoffs))