Chiefs vs Raiders

Kansas City limps into Week 18 on a five-game losing streak, but even with Patrick Mahomes done for the year after ACL and LCL surgery and Chris Oladokun starting at quarterback, the Chiefs are still the more trustworthy moneyline side than a Raiders team that has dropped ten straight and is effectively playing out the string in the race for the first overall pick. The Chiefs’ defense has quietly been top-10 in yards and top-6 in points allowed, while Las Vegas brings in the league’s worst scoring offense at 14.2 points per game and one of the weakest rushing attacks, now further hampered by injuries to Geno Smith (ankle), Raheem Mostert, Maxx Crosby (on injured reserve) and Pro Bowl tight end Brock Bowers also shelved. Recent form between these teams matters too: Kansas City has taken four of the last five, including a 31-0 demolition earlier this season, and even if the Chiefs’ own skill group is dinged up (Isiah Pacheco and Xavier Worthy on the report, Kareem Hunt ill), they still boast a significant defensive and coaching edge in a controlled indoor environment. Laying -285 on a 6-10 road favorite with a backup quarterback is far from premium value, but against a historically bad 2-14 Raiders group that’s 1-7 at home and overwhelmed on both lines, the pick is still Chiefs moneyline at a B- grade for moderate confidence but limited payout. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 02/01/2026 11:53.

With both offenses severely compromised, the total of 36.5 projects as a grind that still leans under, even in a dome. Kansas City averages 21.9 points per game but now turns to Chris Oladokun behind a banged-up backfield (Isiah Pacheco limited, Kareem Hunt ill) and a key wideout in Xavier Worthy battling illness, while Las Vegas pairs the NFL’s lowest scoring offense (14.2 points per game) with a quarterback in Geno Smith who didn’t practice due to an ankle injury and will be throwing without Pro Bowl pass rusher Maxx Crosby helping him with field position on the other side. The Chiefs’ defense remains a real strength — top-10 in yardage and top-6 in points allowed — and they already blanked this Raiders offense 31-0 earlier in the year, which underscores how far Las Vegas is from league-average efficiency even when healthier. The Raiders’ defense is not good, but with both teams eliminated from playoff contention, playing out losing seasons and likely going conservative with injured stars, this profiles as a low-tempo, mistake-prone game where Kansas City grinds out a result and the combined score struggles to push into the high 30s; Under 36.5 at -110 gets a B grade for solid likelihood and fair value. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 02/01/2026 11:53.

Against the spread, laying -5.5 with a 6-10 Chiefs team that’s 1-6 on the road and starting Chris Oladokun instead of Patrick Mahomes is much shakier than just playing the moneyline, but the matchup still tilts slightly toward Kansas City covering. The Raiders are 2-14, riding a double-digit losing streak, and just lost cornerstone edge Maxx Crosby and top target Brock Bowers to injured reserve while Geno Smith (ankle) failed to practice, leaving an already league-worst scoring offense even more depleted for this finale. Kansas City has its own health concerns on offense, yet its defense has been consistently strong and has dominated this series — four wins in the last five and a 31-0 shutout earlier this year — while Las Vegas sits 1-7 at home and 3-5 ATS there, often breaking down late as depth gets exposed. That said, the Chiefs’ 6-10 ATS record and their 1-6 road mark, combined with backup-quarterback volatility, mean the path to a backdoor Raiders cover exists if Kansas City’s offense stalls, so Chiefs -5.5 at -110 earns only a C+ grade: slight lean to the favorite based on defensive edge and Raiders’ injuries, but modest value and a wider range of outcomes than the moneyline. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 02/01/2026 11:53.