Jaguars vs Titans

Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars head to Nissan Stadium with a two-game win streak and three wins in their last four, facing a Titans team stuck in a six-game spiral and averaging barely over 15 points per game behind rookie Cam Ward. Jacksonville’s balanced offense (top-10 rushing, mid-pack passing) matches up well against a Tennessee defense that’s been gashed on the ground and has already allowed more than 300 points, while Lawrence’s career production versus the Titans (over 1,600 passing yards and 9 touchdowns in six meetings) underscores his familiarity with this defense. The Jags are banged up in spots—edge rusher Travon Walker and rookie wideout Brian Thomas Jr. have been on the report—yet Tennessee’s issues are broader, with key pieces like Tony Pollard and Chig Okonkwo managing lower-body and foot concerns on an offense that ranks near the bottom of the league in yards and touchdowns. With cool low-40s temperatures and showers expected in an open-air stadium, Jacksonville’s superior run game and front seven should travel, and the playoff urgency of chasing the 8-3 Colts in a crowded AFC race only tightens their focus against a 1-10 division rival already playing out the string. Laying nearly 3-to-1 juice is never comfortable, but given the stark gap in form, efficiency, and stakes, Jaguars -294 on the moneyline still profiles as a strong anchor leg rather than a standalone longshot, earning an A grade for win probability even if the raw price limits upside. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 28/11/2025 11:33am

With Jacksonville scoring about 24 points per game and Tennessee stuck near the basement at roughly 15, the combined season average sits just under this 41.5 total, and the matchup profile leans toward the Jaguars controlling tempo on the ground rather than a shootout. Jacksonville’s run defense has quietly become a strength, holding opponents under 100 rushing yards in most games, which forces the Titans’ struggling passing attack (under 200 yards per game with one of the league’s worst yards-per-play figures) to string together long drives it hasn’t consistently shown it can finish. Light rain and low-40s temperatures at kickoff in an outdoor setting further dampen explosive-play potential, especially for a banged-up Titans offense relying on Pollard and Okonkwo through various minor knocks, while the Jaguars’ own receiver injuries make them more inclined to lean on Travis Etienne and a methodical script once they’re ahead. Recent form also points slightly downwards for scoring—Tennessee has topped 20 points only once since Week 5, and even in Jacksonville’s overtime win at Arizona, it took four extra possessions and short fields off turnovers to reach the mid-20s—so a game state built around a front-running road favorite and a conservative, mistake-averse close from Liam Coen’s staff fits an Under narrative more than a late back-and-forth. The key concern is a Jaguars offensive spike game or defensive touchdown versus a turnover-prone rookie quarterback, so Under 41.5 at -109 earns a solid but not elite B grade given the matchup edges and weather tailwinds but the ever-present volatility of modern NFL scoring. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 28/11/2025 11:33am

Given Jacksonville’s two-game surge and Tennessee’s six-game skid, laying the full touchdown-minus-the-hook with the Jaguars hinges on whether Lawrence and Etienne can turn their efficiency edge into a multi-score cushion without opening the door to a late Titans backdoor. The Titans’ offense has been one of the least efficient units in football in both yards and points, and while Cam Ward showed flashes in the narrow loss to Seattle, he’s now facing a Jaguars defense that ranks near the top of the league against the run and is coming off a six-sack performance—bad news for a Titans offensive line that’s been rotating injured starters like Lloyd Cushenberry and Dan Moore. Historically, Jacksonville has matched up well with Tennessee recently, sweeping the 2024 series and seeing Lawrence post an 89.1 passer rating across his career meetings, and with the Jaguars 2-2-1 ATS on the road compared with the Titans’ losing ATS mark at home, the trend favors a functional visitor more than a collapsing host. Cold, damp conditions should benefit the deeper, more physical roster, and with the Jags chasing both the division-leading Colts and wild-card tiebreakers while the Titans are effectively eliminated, game script strongly tilts toward Jacksonville playing from ahead and forcing Ward into obvious passing situations that create margin. Because divisional games can tighten unexpectedly and the number sits right on the key six-point band, Jaguars -6 at -111 grades as a B+—a bet with clear statistical and situational support, but just enough backdoor risk to keep it a notch below the moneyline in confidence. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 28/11/2025 11:33am