Jaguars vs Broncos

Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars ride a five-game win streak into Denver, but the Broncos have quietly stacked 11 straight wins and a 7-0 home record behind Bo Nix, who just carved up Green Bay for four passing touchdowns to clinch a playoff berth and put Denver in position to lock up the AFC’s top seed. Jacksonville’s offense has been on fire since Jakobi Meyers arrived (31.8 points per game during a 5-1 run), yet they’re still down dynamic rookie Travis Hunter for the season, while Denver’s secondary is adjusting to life without rangy free safety Brandon Jones after his move to injured reserve. With both teams playing for major playoff leverage — the Broncos eyeing home-field advantage and the Jaguars trying to clinch a postseason spot and keep division control — the altitude at Mile High, Denver’s slightly stingier defense, and its strong home-field profile tilt this matchup toward the favorite, even with Lawrence’s recent six-touchdown eruption against the Jets. I’m backing Denver on the moneyline at -175, but with the price baking in much of their edge and Jacksonville good enough to keep it tight, this is a solid but not elite value play, worthy of a B grade. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 19/12/2025 11:57

Even with Jacksonville (26.9 points per game) and Denver (24.4) combining for more than 50 points a week on average, the total of 46.5 feels a shade high once you factor in how well these defenses have played and what’s at stake. The Jaguars’ run defense has quietly become one of the league’s best, allowing just 86.3 rushing yards per game, while Denver is holding opponents under 19 points a game with a pass defense that has given up only a handful of big receiving days all season, and both units should benefit from the thin air gradually wearing down offensive skill players in an outdoor, physical December game at altitude. Jacksonville is without explosive two-way weapon Travis Hunter and will be missing change-of-pace back Bhayshul Tuten, nudging them toward a slightly more consolidated, methodical attack around Travis Etienne and Meyers, while Denver — already down center-fielder Brandon Jones on the back end — has every incentive to lean on its balanced offense and avoid giving Lawrence short fields in a contest that shapes up like a playoff dress rehearsal. With Denver favored by a field goal, both on multi-game winning streaks, and recent totals data showing Broncos games averaging in the mid-40s while their opponents’ scoring has been suppressed, I expect long drives and red-zone field goals to keep this under the 46.5 number, making Under 46.5 at -105 a reasonable value with a B grade. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 19/12/2025 11:57

Against the spread, Jacksonville has been the more trustworthy side all year at 9-5 ATS and 5-0 ATS over its last five, while Denver sits at 6-8 ATS with a losing record when laying a field goal or more, which matters in what profiles as a tight, playoff-caliber game where a field goal either way is very live. The Broncos’ home-field and altitude edge is real, but the Jaguars’ recent form — seven straight games scoring at least 25 points, Lawrence surging with 13 passing touchdowns over his last five outings, and Etienne already having gashed Denver once in his career for over 150 rushing yards and a score — suggests they have the offensive balance to travel and stay within the number. On the other side, Courtland Sutton has historically hurt Jacksonville with 234 yards and two touchdowns across three meetings, yet Jacksonville’s improved rush defense and pass rush, combined with Denver’s adjustment to life without starting free safety Brandon Jones, raise the odds of a one-score, back-and-forth script rather than a Broncos runaway, especially with both teams treating this like a seeding swing game (Denver chasing the No. 1 seed, Jacksonville trying to secure its playoff berth and climb the AFC ladder). I project Denver as a slim favorite to win outright, but with so many indicators pointing to a close finish in a matchup of two hot teams, grabbing Jacksonville +3 at -105 gets a B+ grade on the combination of cover probability and price. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 19/12/2025 11:57