Colts vs Seahawks

Seattle’s 10-3 record, strong 4-2 home mark, and dominant recent form as a favorite (they’ve won the vast majority of games when laying a price) make the Seahawks the clear Moneyline side against a Colts team that has lost four of five and just watched its starting quarterback go down for the season. With Sam Darnold playing efficient, high-volume football and Cooper Kupp historically torching Indianapolis (multiple 100-yard, multi-touchdown efforts against the Colts), Seattle’s passing game has a clear edge over a defense missing its top corner and still working DeForest Buckner back into full strength. On the other side, a banged-up Indy offense built around Jonathan Taylor and an uncertain Rivers/Leonard combination must deal with Seattle’s pass rush and loud Lumen Field crowd while also traveling cross-country in a must-win spot. I project Seattle to win this game comfortably most of the time, but at a price around -1100, the payout barely justifies the risk, so this is more of a “safe anchor leg” than a standalone play, grading out as a B- for high win probability but poor raw value. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 12/12/2025 12:01

Both offenses profile as capable of pushing this total past 43, with Seattle and Indianapolis each averaging close to 30 points per game this season and combining for well above this number on average, while their defenses both allow enough chunk plays to sustain scoring. The Seahawks have cashed the over in a majority of their games thanks to Darnold’s aggressive downfield passing and a deep receiver group headlined by Kupp, who has consistently produced explosive outings against the Colts, and they now face an Indy secondary weakened by multiple injuries at corner. Indianapolis counters with Jonathan Taylor, who leads the league in rushing yards and touchdowns and powers an offense that already owns the most rushing scores in the NFL, pairing that efficiency with an aggressive approach from Shane Steichen even with Rivers or Leonard under center. Given the Colts’ recent turnover issues and shaky pass protection on the right side, short fields for Seattle are also in play, which only helps the total; the main risk is that Indy’s quarterback situation and offensive line woes could stall too many drives, so while the Over has a solid statistical case and matchup support, it earns a B rather than an A-level grade. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 12/12/2025 12:01

Even with all their issues, the Colts catching +13.5 points feels a tick too generous in a league where double-digit road underdogs with a strong rushing identity often find ways to hang around or sneak in a late backdoor cover. Indianapolis is 7-6 against the spread, has rarely been blown out thanks to Jonathan Taylor’s ability to control tempo and finish drives in the red zone, and remains highly motivated with its playoff hopes on the line, whereas Seattle—though an excellent 10-3 ATS and on a strong 7-1 run against the number—hasn’t often been laying this kind of massive spread against teams with top-tier run games. The matchup suggests Seattle builds a lead behind Darnold’s passing and Kupp’s history of slicing up the Colts’ coverage, but as the game wears on a veteran like Rivers (or a mobile Leonard if he gets the nod) operating in hurry-up against softer coverage can turn a three-score margin into something closer to 7–10 points. Because the number bakes in Seattle dominance yet still gives Indy multiple paths to the ticket cashing—from a competitive first half to a late-score backdoor—I grade Colts +13.5 at -105 as a B+ value play against the spread. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 12/12/2025 12:01