Pacers vs Pelicans

New Orleans leans on Zion Williamson and a suddenly confident supporting cast to extend a three-game winning streak at home against an Indiana team that has lost three straight and sits at 1–11 away from Gainbridge Fieldhouse. With Tyrese Haliburton out for the season and key pieces like Obi Toppin and Aaron Nesmith sidelined or banged up, the Pacers’ attack is heavily dependent on Pascal Siakam and Andrew Nembhard, even though Siakam has typically produced around 19 points, 6 boards and 4 assists per game in his career against the Pelicans. On the other side, Trey Murphy III has historically punished Indiana with roughly 18/6/3 lines, and he now shares the floor with Zion, Saddiq Bey and Jordan Poole against a Pacers defense that’s been outscored by nearly eight points per night. Given New Orleans’ form, healthier rotation (only Dejounte Murray is a major absence), and home court, laying -170 on the Pelicans’ moneyline earns a B grade for solid win probability with only moderate value in a battle of bottom-tier teams. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 20/12/2025 09:42

Indiana’s injury-hit backcourt and three-game losing slide, combined with their roughly 110 points per game scoring profile, nudge this matchup toward the Under 235.5 despite New Orleans riding a three-game heater. The Pacers have cashed far more unders on the road than overs, and their offensive ceiling is clearly lower without Haliburton, Toppin and Nesmith, while the Pelicans’ recent surge has still produced typical totals in the low 230s when you blend their 122–123 points for with about 123 allowed. With Murray out, New Orleans leans more on half-court creation from Zion, Murphy and Bey rather than constant five-out pace, and Indiana runs plenty through Siakam and Nembhard, which can trim a few possessions off the game flow. Considering that Siakam has been more steady than explosive against the Pelicans and Murphy’s usual 16–18 points versus Indiana doesn’t by itself push this into track-meet territory, Under 235.5 at -110 gets a B+ for aligning well with team scoring trends, injuries, and venue. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 20/12/2025 09:42

Pascal Siakam’s solid history versus New Orleans and Indiana’s tendency to hang around even in losses makes grabbing the points tempting, but the combination of the Pacers’ three-game skid and New Orleans’ three-game run pushes me to Pelicans -3.5. The Pelicans have been one of the better ATS teams so far and now get a home number inside two possessions against a Pacers side missing its on-ball engine (Haliburton) plus rotation forwards Toppin and Nesmith, forcing heavy minutes on a thin core around Siakam, Nembhard and Bennedict Mathurin. Zion, Murphy and Bey give New Orleans multiple ways to attack a defense that’s already allowing nearly 118 points a night, and Murphy’s consistent success against the Pacers adds another edge in late-game shot-making where spreads are decided. Because small spreads in low-tier matchups are volatile and Indiana’s historical stars like Siakam have still produced reasonably well against the Pelicans, I grade New Orleans -3.5 (-110) as a B-: a slight value on the hotter, healthier team but not one to overexpose your bankroll on. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 20/12/2025 09:42