Colts vs Jaguars

Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars roll into this rematch on a three-game win streak against a Colts team that has dropped two straight and hasn’t won in Jacksonville in nearly a decade, while Daniel Jones is gutting it out through a fractured fibula that’s clearly limiting his mobility. With DeForest Buckner stuck on injured reserve and shutdown corner Sauce Gardner expected to miss time, Indianapolis’ defense loses two blue-chip pieces just as Lawrence, Jakobi Meyers and a deep receiver group are heating up, and the wet, rain-soaked EverBank Stadium field should further tilt things toward the healthier home side that’s already 4-2 at home this year. Jacksonville’s defense has quietly surged as well, riding Josh Hines-Allen and a resurgent front into an 8-4 record and a share of first in the AFC South, while the Colts’ previously top-ranked scoring attack has cooled over the last month as pass protection and Jones’ explosiveness have both taken a hit. With Jacksonville’s proven history of giving Indy fits at home, Lawrence’s excellent career numbers against the Colts, and the division lead on the line, taking the Jaguars at 106 on the moneyline offers solid value for what feels closer to a coin flip. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 05/12/2025 12:10am

Both offenses bring firepower into Sunday — Indianapolis averaging close to 30 points per game behind Jones, Jonathan Taylor and breakout deep threat Alec Pierce, and Jacksonville around the mid-20s with Lawrence distributing to multiple weapons — but the combination of a soggy natural grass surface, persistent rain in the forecast and swirling winds in an open stadium makes a clean aerial shootout less likely. The Colts’ attack has already shown some regression the past two weeks as Jones plays through that fractured fibula and faces more pressure, and the Jaguars’ line could be missing left tackle Walker Little while wideout Parker Washington nurses a hip issue, all of which increases the odds of stalled drives and field goals. Even with Buckner and Gardner out weakening Indy’s defense, Jacksonville has leaned on a more balanced, methodical approach during its current win streak, and divisional games with this much AFC South leverage often tighten up, especially when footing is unstable and both coaches are willing to lean on their run games. Given the weather, recent dip in Colts scoring against quality defenses and multiple key offensive players on both teams banged up, the Under 47 at -116 is worth a play, though the underlying offensive talent on both sidelines keeps this at a more moderate confidence level. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 05/12/2025 12:10am

For the spread, Jacksonville catching +2 at home is extremely attractive when you factor in their three-game surge, the Colts’ two-game skid and Indy’s brutal recent history in Jacksonville, where they’ve lost nine straight and have consistently struggled to cover. Lawrence’s sustained success against the Colts — with strong efficiency and touchdown production over multiple meetings — now meets an Indianpolis defense missing its interior anchor in Buckner and its new lockdown corner in Gardner, which should open up intermediate windows even if the wet conditions cap downfield aggression. On the other side, Jones playing through a fractured fibula, coupled with the loss of Buckner and a banged-up front seven, makes it harder for the Colts to fully leverage their early-season scoring pace, especially on a sloppy road field where their run-game edge is somewhat offset by Jacksonville’s improving front. With the Jags 4-2 at home, trending well against the spread in their own building and playing for a chance to seize sole control of the AFC South, taking the points with Jacksonville at +2 (-112) offers both cushion and upside that outstrips the short favorite price on an injured Indy side, earning this the highest confidence grade of the three bets. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 05/12/2025 12:10am