Colts vs Texans

C.J. Stroud leads an 11-5 Texans team riding an eight-game winning streak and already locked into the postseason, while the 8-8 Colts limp into Week 18 on a six-game skid and officially eliminated from playoff contention. Houston is keeping its starters active with a live shot at the AFC South and a higher seed, whereas Indianapolis turns to rookie Riley Leonard behind a banged-up roster after season-ending injuries earlier in the year to Daniel Jones and a long IR stint for Anthony Richardson, leaving their quarterback room unsettled heading into a hostile road dome. Stroud’s career body of work against the Colts has been strong, and even in this year’s road win at Indianapolis he threw for 276 yards while Woody Marks and Nico Collins drove a balanced attack that out-gained the Colts and controlled the game flow. On the other side, Jonathan Taylor remains dangerous but the Colts’ offense has cratered during the losing streak, and their defense is stretched thin with starters like Sauce Gardner and multiple other contributors on the injury report, making it difficult to trust them to produce a full 60-minute upset against a locked-in Texans side. With Houston also undefeated in playoff games at home under DeMeco Ryans and still chasing a division crown if Jacksonville stumbles, the motivation and quarterback edge both tilt heavily toward the Texans simply taking care of business on their home turf. At such a steep price the payout is limited, but as a parlay anchor or low-risk straight play, backing Houston on the moneyline grades as an A- confidence pick for win probability, docked slightly for modest monetary upside. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 02/01/2026 11:45.([houstonchronicle.com](https://www.houstonchronicle.com/sports/texans/article/houston-los-angeles-chargers-week-17-updates-21263549.php?utm_source=openai))

The total of 39 is shaded low for a dome game, but the matchup dynamics still lean slightly to the Under, with the market itself implying a Texans score in the mid-20s and the Colts in the low teens based on current spread and moneyline pricing. Houston’s defense has been driving its eight-game surge, holding the Chargers to just 16 points on the road in Week 17 and repeatedly winning with complementary football rather than shootouts, while the earlier meeting between these teams finished 20-16 for a combined 36 points despite both offenses having healthier personnel and more stable quarterback play at that time. Indianapolis’ attack has bogged down badly during its six-game losing streak, and now leans even more on Taylor and the ground game to protect rookie Riley Leonard, a formula that chews clock against a Texans front that, while dinged up, still tackles well at the second level with Azeez Al-Shaair when available and rotates fresh bodies on the line. Houston’s offense can certainly spike, but its recent wins have featured balanced, methodical drives from Stroud, Marks, Collins and Dalton Schultz rather than relentless tempo, and if Jacksonville jumps out early on Tennessee, there’s a non-trivial chance the Texans shorten the game by leaning into the run and quick throws. The risk to the Under is late-game variance—defensive injuries in Houston’s secondary and linebacker corps could open a backdoor scoring flurry if Leonard settles in and Taylor breaks a big run—but with both prior head-to-head scoring and current form pointing slightly below this number, Under 39 earns a solid but not elite B grade. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 02/01/2026 11:45.([rotowire.com](https://www.rotowire.com/football/article/fanduel-fantasy-football-top-lineup-strategies-for-week-18-101826?utm_source=openai))

Even while strongly favoring Houston to win outright, the combination of a double-digit spread, Week 18 game theory, and matchup specifics makes the Colts +10.5 attractive against the number. Houston’s eight-game heater and superior quarterback in Stroud justify heavy favoritism, but the Texans come in with a lengthy defensive injury list that includes starting linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair and multiple starting-caliber defensive backs such as Kamari Lassiter and Derek Stingley Jr., increasing the likelihood of coverage busts or conservative snap counts that can keep a backdoor cover in play. Indianapolis has quietly continued to get high-level production from Jonathan Taylor, who posted 121 scrimmage yards in the first meeting and remains the best non-quarterback on either offense in this matchup, and a run-heavy plan built around him can shorten possessions and limit the margin as rookie Riley Leonard manages the passing game against a Texans front missing or limiting several veterans. The earlier Texans win in Indianapolis landed on just a four-point margin despite Houston controlling many efficiency metrics, and with the Colts playing to avoid a losing season and spoil a division rival’s title bid, effort and fourth-quarter aggression should be high even with no playoff berth on the line. There is blowout risk if Leonard melts under pressure or the Texans chase style points for tiebreakers, but given Houston’s incentive to pull back once the Jaguars’ game script is clear, taking the generous cushion with Indianapolis at +10.5 rates as a B+ value play on the spread, slightly higher than the total due to the combination of number, motivation, and injury-driven volatility on the Texans’ defense. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 02/01/2026 11:45.([rotowire.com](https://www.rotowire.com/football/lineups.php))