Pacers vs Bulls

Chicago’s injury-ravaged roster still leans on Josh Giddey, Nikola Vučević and rookie Matas Buzelis enough that, even on a five-game skid, they profile better at home than a Pacers team that is 0-10 on the road, missing All-NBA engine Tyrese Haliburton for the season, and over-reliant on Pascal Siakam’s shot creation after he burned the Bulls with a 24-point game-winner in last week’s 103-101 meeting; with Chicago’s underlying offensive metrics outpacing Indiana’s bottom-tier attack and market models still projecting a comfortable Bulls win, I’m siding with Chicago on the moneyline at -205 for a B-grade play—solid win probability, but with juice high enough to cap the value. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 05/12/2025 09:55am

Indiana’s offense has cratered to near the bottom of the league without Haliburton, while Chicago’s recent results have slowed as injuries to high-usage shooters like Coby White and Kevin Huerter chip away at their spacing, and their last matchup landed at just 204 combined points despite both teams playing fast; with the Bulls and Pacers combining to average fewer points than this 238.5 total, recent market movement shading the number down from early openers, and both sides leaning on banged-up rotations that can stagnate late in games, I lean to the Under 238.5 at -110 with a B- grade—there’s a slight statistical edge, but the leaky defenses keep the risk profile higher than ideal. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 05/12/2025 09:55am

Pascal Siakam and Bennedict Mathurin have consistently hurt Chicago—Siakam’s game-winning jumper and Mathurin’s 19 points powered Indiana’s comeback cover and outright win on November 29—and the Pacers come in 6-2 ATS in their last eight and 4-1 ATS in their last five against the Bulls, while Chicago has covered just once in five tries as a favorite of 4.5 points or more and is still missing or limiting multiple rotation pieces across the backcourt and wings; with Indiana’s depth thinned but its primary scorers healthy, I’m willing to grab the Pacers +5 at -115 for a C+ grade, expecting Chicago to be more likely to escape with a narrow home win than to consistently separate by multiple possessions. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 05/12/2025 09:55am