Texans vs Steelers

For the moneyline, Houston at -160 is the side I want, even in a hostile playoff environment. The Texans arrive on a long winning run that includes back-to-back road victories over the Chargers and a high-scoring finale against the Colts, while the Steelers closed strong but were less consistent, dropping a low-output game in Cleveland amid an otherwise solid 3-1 finish. Stroud has already shown he can solve this defense, carving up Pittsburgh for over 300 yards and multiple scores in their last regular-season meeting, and he now has a deeper receiver group plus a more efficient scheme than he did as a rookie. On the other side, Rodgers and the Steelers’ passing game can absolutely threaten, but Houston’s takeaway-heavy defense and pass rush give them more paths to a straight-up win, especially with the cold but clear weather limiting neither quarterback. With the Texans’ overall form, quarterback edge relative to where Rodgers and this offense are right now, and their ability to win on the road, I grade Texans -160 as a B+ value on the moneyline. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 12/01/2026 09:30

With the total at 38, I lean to the Over at -110, expecting these offenses to push the game into the low 40s despite the January chill. Houston’s attack with Stroud has been more efficient down the stretch, topping 20 points in each of its last three and showing the ability to hit explosive plays to Collins and Dalton Schultz, which matches up well against a Steelers secondary that has been more vulnerable than its front seven. Pittsburgh’s offense, meanwhile, has looked livelier with Rodgers, scoring in the mid-to-high 20s in recent home wins over Miami, Detroit, and Baltimore, and his timing-based passing game plus DK Metcalf on the perimeter can take advantage if Houston’s aggressive defense sells out to stop the run. The weather forecast in Pittsburgh calls for cold but dry conditions with calming winds by kickoff, so execution — not elements — should dictate scoring, and in a win-or-go-home Wild Card setting both coaches are likely to stay aggressive on fourth downs and red-zone playcalling. That mix of recent scoring trends, quarterback quality, and workable weather nudges me to Over 38 at -110, graded as a B. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 12/01/2026 09:30

Against the spread, I’m siding with Houston -3 at -105, expecting their overall efficiency edge to show up over four quarters more often than not. The Texans have been covering margins regularly during their nine-game heater, powered by Stroud’s poise and an opportunistic defense that ranks near the top of the league in takeaways, and they’ve already demonstrated they can separate from this opponent with a prior multi-score win when Stroud and Collins shredded the Steelers’ coverage. Pittsburgh’s front — with T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith and Patrick Queen — can absolutely create high-variance moments and keep this tight, especially at home in prime time with Tomlin’s Monday night track record, but Rodgers’ unit has also gone through stretches of stalled drives and reliance on short passing that can lag behind a more explosive Texans offense. In cold yet dry conditions where both passing games should still function, Houston’s combination of downfield threats and pass-rush-driven field-position edges makes a win by more than a field goal slightly more likely than the number implies, so Texans -3 (-105) gets a solid B grade. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 12/01/2026 09:30