Rockets vs Warriors

Stephen Curry and the Warriors bring only a modest one-game winning streak into this NBA Cup home date, but the combination of their 6-1 start at Chase Center, Houston’s pile of absences (Kevin Durant, Steven Adams, Tari Eason, Dorian Finney-Smith and Fred VanVleet all ruled out), and Golden State’s long-running dominance of this matchup — including last season’s seven-game playoff ouster of the Rockets — makes the favorite the side to back on the moneyline despite Houston’s superior 8-2 form over its last 10. With Curry still driving one of the league’s better offenses, Jimmy Butler and Draymond Green available to grind Houston’s thin frontcourt, and the psychological edge from multiple postseason wins over this franchise, Warriors -127 is a pick I’d grade as a B+: reasonably likely to cash with solid but not spectacular value given how well the Rockets have played. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 26/11/2025 09:53am

Houston’s league-leading 122.3 points per game and Golden State’s 115.8 scoring average, paired with both defenses allowing 111–115 per night and a recent run of high-scoring games (four of the Rockets’ last five and four of the Warriors’ last five clearing 230), point toward a totals environment that still favors the Over even with Durant, VanVleet and multiple Houston role players sidelined and Al Horford out for Golden State. The Rockets’ pace and three-point volume haven’t dipped much without their veterans, Amen Thompson’s downhill pressure and Alperen Sengun’s inside-out playmaking keep their offensive ceiling high, and Golden State’s home shooting — especially from Curry and Buddy Hield — plus a thin Rockets front line should help this stay closer to each team’s season scoring norms than to the mid-220s number. I’ll take Over 224 at -112 with a B grade: strong offensive indicators and recent trends support it, but injury-driven volatility and blowout risk keep it shy of elite value. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 26/11/2025 09:53am

Even with Kevin Durant and several rotation pieces missing, Houston has been excellent against the number (10-5 ATS and 7-1 straight up on the road), but Golden State’s own 6-1 home record, the likelihood that Draymond Green plays through his GTD tag, and the way this rivalry has tilted toward multi-possession Warriors wins — both in last year’s 3-2 regular-season edge and their decisive playoff Game 7 — make laying the small -2.5 spread slightly more attractive than grabbing the points with a severely shorthanded Rockets squad. If Green is active to anchor the defense, his switches alongside Butler on Amen Thompson and Reed Sheppard, combined with Sengun having to shoulder more usage without Adams, Eason or Finney-Smith, increase the odds that Golden State can create separation late rather than relying on another one-possession escape. I’d grade Warriors -2.5 (-105) as a B- pick: it correlates well with the moneyline lean and offers modest plus value on a key number, but Houston’s ATS track record and explosive offense, even in this injury state, make a tight finish a real risk. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 26/11/2025 09:53am