Rockets vs Nuggets

Denver’s six-game win streak behind Nikola Jokic’s MVP-level run and a 20-6 overall mark, including 8-4 at Ball Arena, makes the Nuggets the side to back on the moneyline at -115 after taking both previous meetings from Houston, including a 128-125 overtime classic where Jokic dropped 39-15-10 and a 112-109 road win keyed by Jokic and Jamal Murray. With the Rockets on a two-game skid, leaking late leads in back-to-back overtime losses and missing key rotation pieces Fred VanVleet (ACL), Dorian Finney-Smith (ankle) and Tari Eason (oblique), Denver’s superior continuity around Jokic and Murray outweighs its own wing injuries to Aaron Gordon and Christian Braun. Houston’s star power with Kevin Durant and Alperen Sengun and a strong 8-6 road record keep this from being a slam dunk, but Denver’s form, head-to-head edge and home altitude justify laying the short price, so Nuggets -115 gets a B+ for a balanced mix of win probability and manageable juice. Odds and availability are subject to change; This bet was made at 20/12/2025 09:37

Houston’s recent defensive collapse — giving up 128 and 133 points in consecutive overtime losses, including blowing a 25-point lead in New Orleans — combined with Denver’s current stretch of 126, 128, 136, 115 and 134 points scored in its last five games points this matchup toward another shootout that can clear the lofty 237 total at -115. The first two meetings finished at 221 and 253 total points (the latter 233 in regulation), and both teams enter averaging north of 120 points per game on around 49–52% shooting, with Jokic orchestrating an elite Denver offense and the Durant–Sengun–Amen Thompson core giving Houston multiple three-level options. Injuries are skewed more toward defensive-oriented forwards — Gordon and Braun for Denver, Finney-Smith and Eason for Houston — which should force smaller, more offensive-heavy lineups and increase pace, even if some late-game fatigue on the Rockets’ road trip introduces risk at this inflated number. Given the recent scoring environment and matchup history, Over 237 earns a B: high total and juice, but supported by form and personnel. Odds and availability are subject to change; This bet was made at 20/12/2025 09:37

Jokic’s dominance of this matchup so far — 39-15-10 in Denver’s overtime win and 34-10-9 in the earlier three-point victory in Houston — suggests the Nuggets are slightly undervalued laying just -1 at -110, even with both prior games decided by a single possession. Denver is riding a six-game winning streak and sits second in the West at 20-6 despite being without Gordon and Braun, while Houston has slipped to fifth at 16-8 on a two-game skid and a 3-4 mark so far in December, with late-game execution and depth hurt by the absences of VanVleet, Finney-Smith and Eason. The Rockets’ offensive ceiling with Durant and Sengun, plus two one-possession losses in the series already, argue for keeping the stake modest, but home-court altitude, current form and Denver’s 8-4 home record tilt the spread call toward a Nuggets win by a few points, so Denver -1 is graded a B for solid but not elite value relative to moneyline exposure. Odds and availability are subject to change; This bet was made at 20/12/2025 09:37