Warriors vs Suns

Stephen Curry and the Warriors roll into Phoenix having dropped four of their last six overall while the Suns are just 4-6 in their last 10 but also riding a three-game home losing streak, which makes this a classic “buy-low” spot on the hosts despite Golden State being priced as the -148 favorite. With Al Horford (back) and rotation guard Pat Spencer out for the Warriors and Suns guard Jalen Green still sidelined by a hamstring issue while Devin Booker has only just returned from a groin injury, both teams are short a contributor but Phoenix’s core of Booker, Dillon Brooks and Grayson Allen is intact and scoring efficiently. Per the latest rosters and matchup data, Golden State still leans heavily on Curry’s 29.6 points per game and Jimmy Butler’s two-way impact, yet Phoenix has been the stronger ATS team overall and now gets a home crowd desperate to snap that skid. Given the Suns’ 8–5 home record, Golden State’s mediocre 6–10 mark on the road, and a recent 4–2 straight-up edge for the Warriors in the series that slightly suppresses the Suns’ price, I like the value on Phoenix to win outright at +125, but only for a Grade B confidence because Curry remains the best player on the floor. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 18/12/2025 10:12am

Devin Booker and the Suns have seen their last two games swing from a 49-point blowout loss to a grindy 116–114 defeat, and combined with Golden State’s own inconsistency (4–6 in their last 10), that volatility masks the fact that these teams’ average scoring profiles point slightly below the 231 total. Both offenses sit in the mid-110s in points per game (Warriors 114.4, Suns 114.8), and opponents combine for roughly 228 points per outing, so this 231 number is shaded a bit high given Phoenix’s strong home-under trend and Green’s continued absence from their backcourt rotation. Booker’s recent return from a groin issue should help Phoenix’s half-court efficiency, but it also encourages more methodical late-clock possessions, while Golden State’s rotation shuffles and Horford’s absence up front have nudged Steve Kerr toward smaller lineups that can be trapped in slower, whistle-heavy games on the road. With the market already inching totals down from some 231.5 openers and Phoenix’s home games skewing under far more often than not, I’m inclined to play Under 231 at -115 with a Grade B+ given the statistical lean and modest edge over the posted number. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 18/12/2025 10:12am

Dillon Brooks and the Suns catching +3 at home against a Warriors team that is 4–8 against the spread over its last 12 and just 6–10 straight up on the road looks like the most attractive angle on this board. Phoenix may be wobbling with that three-game home skid and the ongoing absence of Jalen Green, but Booker, Brooks and Allen are all active and driving a 16–10 ATS mark overall, while Golden State arrives shorthanded in the frontcourt without Horford and missing a rotation handler in Spencer. Historically, the Warriors are 4–2 straight up in the last six meetings yet only 4–9 ATS in the last 13 against Phoenix, which lines up with the idea that their star power keeps games close but often fails to justify laying points, especially when the Suns’ versatile wings can throw multiple defenders at Curry and Butler. Given the tight market around a one-possession spread, the Suns’ stronger covering profile at home, and the cushion that +3 provides in what projects as another tight Western Conference matchup, I’m grading Phoenix +3 (-109) as an A- play that offers the best blend of probability and value among the three major markets. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 18/12/2025 10:12am