Warriors vs Pelicans

Golden State just snapped a brief skid with that 128-117 home win over Denver, but doing it without Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler, and Kristaps Porzingis (who didn’t even travel) meant heavy minutes for Brandin Podziemski, Moses Moody, and Al Horford, and now that thinned-out rotation has to turn around quickly for a road date in New Orleans where the Pelicans are coming off a 126-111 win over the 76ers to finally halt their own ugly stretch. New Orleans is still missing Trey Murphy and has Dejounte Murray only easing back into action, yet Zion Williamson, Jordan Poole, and Derik Queen form a capable core at home, and the earlier 104-96 loss to a much healthier Warriors side showed how narrow the margin already was when Golden State had its stars. With the Warriors at 30-27 protecting their bodies for the Western playoff race while the 16-42 Pelicans can play spoiler as a loose home underdog, I like New Orleans to ride Zion’s physicality and Poole’s familiarity with Golden State’s schemes to edge a short-handed Dubs group outright at +100, a B-grade moneyline pick balancing a moderate win probability with solid plus-money value. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 24/02/2026 10:03

New Orleans’ offense has lived on streaky spurts all year, and with Trey Murphy still out and Dejounte Murray only just returning from a long layoff, the Pelicans increasingly lean on Zion Williamson bullying in the half court, which tends to slow pace against a Warriors team missing Curry and Butler and likely leaning on Horford-, Draymond Green–style structure even when small. Golden State’s shorthanded group just held Denver to 16 points in the fourth quarter and is unlikely to push tempo on the road with such a compromised backcourt, while the Pelicans’ scoring often collapses when Zion sits and they’re forced into late-clock jumpers from role players like Saddiq Bey and Poole. Their first meeting this season finished 104-96, and with both sides deep into the schedule, managing minutes and injuries in very different playoff realities — Warriors fighting for seeding, Pelicans effectively out and prone to ugly offensive stretches — I see more avenues to a grindy, whistle-light game than a track meet, so I’m on Under 224.5 at -110 as a B+ position that offers strong value if the pace and efficiency both dip. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 24/02/2026 10:03

Jordan Poole’s shot-making volatility becomes a weapon here because his familiarity with Golden State’s defensive rules can stress a Warriors backcourt already missing Curry and Butler and potentially Porzingis’ size on the back line, forcing Steve Kerr to juggle lineups around Draymond Green and Horford that can defend but aren’t built to blow teams out on the road. The Warriors are just 11-16 away from home and, at 30-27, are clearly managing their battered rotation with an eye on staying above the West play-in line, while the 16-42 Pelicans — despite injuries to Murphy and depth pieces — come in on a modest uptick with Zion, Queen, and Bey giving them enough size and rebounding to hang around late. Given that their earlier matchup was a single-digit decision even when Golden State was healthier, and with New Orleans now at home feeding off a spoiler mentality while the Dubs try to escape the bayou without burning out their key veterans, I’m willing to pay the extra juice for Pelicans +1.5 (-118) as a B- spread play that offers the protection of a one-possession loss in what profiles as another tight, possession-by-possession finish. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 24/02/2026 10:03