Packers vs Vikings

With Jordan Love ruled out and the Packers locked into the NFC’s 7-seed, Minnesota faces a Green Bay team riding a three-game losing streak and turning to lightly used backup Clayton Tune, who has yet to throw an NFL touchdown and owns just 78 career passing yards with three interceptions. ([reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/sports/nfl/derrick-henry-rushes-4-tds-216-yards-ravens-outslug-packers--flm-2025-12-28/?utm_source=openai)) The Vikings, meanwhile, have ripped off four straight wins behind a suddenly ferocious defense that just forced six Lions turnovers and sacked Jared Goff five times, and they now get to finish at home in the dome against a rival that has nothing to gain in the standings. ([vikings.com](https://www.vikings.com/audio/vikings-postgame-report-the-vikings-defeat-the-lions-23-10-on-christmas-day-improve-to-8-8-on-the-season-wk-17?utm_source=openai)) Even if J.J. McCarthy is coming off a hand fracture, he’s back to full practice and will be supported by Aaron Jones and Justin Jefferson, who has historically punished Green Bay with over 70 receiving yards per game and five touchdowns across this rivalry. ([reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/sports/vikings-jj-mccarthy-hand-resumes-full-practice-activity--flm-2026-01-02/?utm_source=openai)) With Minnesota’s motivation edge, defensive surge, and a massive quarterback advantage over a spot-starting Tune, laying the steep price in the -400 range on the Vikings’ moneyline is justified, though the limited payout keeps this in B-grade territory rather than elite value. ([vegasinsider.com](https://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/nfl-week-18-odds-2025/?utm_source=openai)) Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 02/01/2026 11:38

This total is already depressed, but the combination of Green Bay’s quarterback situation, Minnesota’s defensive form, and the game’s lack of playoff urgency for the Packers still leans strongly toward a low-scoring script. With Love resting and Tune stepping in — bringing a career line of 70–78 passing yards and zero touchdowns in scattered appearances — it’s hard to project sustained efficiency from a Packers offense that has already sputtered during its current three-game slide and just got bullied by Baltimore. ([reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/sports/nfl/derrick-henry-rushes-4-tds-216-yards-ravens-outslug-packers--flm-2025-12-28/?utm_source=openai)) On the other side, McCarthy has been wildly inconsistent and is coming off a hand injury, while Justin Jefferson’s production has lagged all season in an offense that’s leaned more on Aaron Jones and a turnover-hungry defense, which just smothered Detroit and held the Lions to 10 points. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/_/id/4433970/jj-mccarthy?utm_source=openai)) Their first 2025 meeting only reached 29 total points in a 23-6 Packers win, and this rematch swaps out a playoff-caliber version of Love for Tune under center, with the Vikings’ defense now playing its best ball of the season and Green Bay already through to January. ([sports.yahoo.com](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/did-jordan-love-play-well-225246683.html?utm_source=openai)) With both teams likely to skew conservative — Minnesota protecting a young QB and Green Bay avoiding injuries before the postseason — the Under 35.5 at standard -110 juice grades out as an A- play on a grind-it-out divisional closer. ([rotowire.com](https://www.rotowire.com/football/lineups.php)) Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 02/01/2026 11:38

The spread hinges on whether Minnesota’s recent dominance and Green Bay’s personnel choices can stretch this beyond one score, and the matchup tilts toward a comfortable Vikings margin more often than not. The Vikings have won four straight and just blew out Detroit by double digits on Christmas behind a defense that’s generating pressure and takeaways at an elite clip, while the Packers limp in on an 0-3 run and are sitting their starting quarterback with the 7-seed already secured. ([sports.yahoo.com](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/vikings-defense-dominates-23-10-011527874.html?utm_source=openai)) Tune’s limited track record and Green Bay’s likely cautious approach with banged-up playmakers like Josh Jacobs, Jayden Reed, and others contrasts sharply with Minnesota rolling out Jefferson — who averages more than 75 yards per game and has five touchdowns in 10 career meetings with the Packers — plus Aaron Jones facing his former team behind a defense that just wrecked one of the league’s top offenses. ([rotowire.com](https://www.rotowire.com/football/lineups.php)) Even with J.J. McCarthy’s uneven rookie campaign and a previous rough outing against Green Bay’s defense on his ledger, his current health trend and home-dome environment, paired with Minnesota’s motivation to finish above .500 against a division rival that has little to play for, justify laying -7.5 at -115 and make Vikings -7.5 a B+ value against the spread. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/_/id/4433970/jj-mccarthy?utm_source=openai)) Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 02/01/2026 11:38