Packers vs Lions

With Green Bay riding a two-game win streak and Detroit coming off an up-and-down run of alternating wins and losses, I still lean toward the Lions on the moneyline at -159 thanks to their strong home form in the dome, top-tier scoring offense behind Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown, and a track record of taking care of business when favored despite the earlier 27-13 loss at Lambeau. Detroit’s offensive line is patched together with center Graham Glasgow out and several starters playing hurt, but home-field familiarity and Gibbs’ recent breakout help offset that, while Green Bay’s offense is quietly shorthanded on the perimeter with Jayden Reed unavailable even as Josh Jacobs returns to give Jordan Love balance against a banged-up Lions secondary. Given the NFC North and playoff implications if Detroit can tighten the division race by evening the head-to-head, I’m willing to pay the favorite price on the more explosive home side, though the modest edge at this number keeps it at a B-grade rather than something higher. Sources: recent win/loss streaks from the 2025 schedule, efficiency and scoring metrics plus home/road splits from national stat sites, injury updates on Glasgow, Raymond, Joseph, Wright, Jacobs and Reed from official team reports and local beats, and Week 1 matchup details and Jordan Love’s performance from the Packers’ recap and independent stat logs. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 27/11/2025 09:58am

For the total, I lean Over 48.5 at -106 in a controlled dome environment where the Lions are averaging close to 30 points per game and ranking near the top of the league in both rushing and overall offense, while the Packers contribute a mid-20s scoring profile with an efficient Jordan Love–Josh Jacobs core that has already produced multiple touchdowns against this defense. Detroit has seen a majority of its games land over the number and just gave up 27 points and massive yardage to the Giants, and although Green Bay’s defense is legitimately top-five in points allowed, that unit now has to navigate a high-volume Amon-Ra St. Brown passing attack and Gibbs’ big-play ability with All-Pro safety Kerby Joseph and several other contributors sidelined. With market-implied team totals around the mid-20s for both sides and a playoff-chasing, divisional rematch script that encourages aggression on fourth downs and in the red zone, scores like 27-24 or 30-24 are realistic outcomes, but Green Bay’s stingy scoring defense and Detroit’s occasional offensive volatility cap this as a B- confidence play rather than something stronger. Sources: team scoring and yardage rankings plus over/under records from FOX Sports and similar databases, implied team totals and game over/under from widely available odds screens and DFS tools, and injury information on Joseph, Glasgow and other Lions plus the Packers’ recent defensive form from official injury reports and beat coverage. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 27/11/2025 09:58am

Against the spread, I prefer grabbing the Packers +3 at -114 with a B- grade, anticipating a tight one-score game where Detroit may edge the straight-up result but struggles to separate by more than a field goal. Green Bay has won four of its last six and comes in on a two-game surge behind a defense giving up roughly 18 points per game and a high-efficiency Jordan Love, while Detroit’s alternating win-loss pattern and recent defensive lapses point to a talented but still volatile contender. The Lions’ offensive line and pass-catching depth are thinned by injuries to Glasgow, Brock Wright and Kalif Raymond (on top of Sam LaPorta already being out) and a depleted secondary missing Kerby Joseph, which narrows the margin for a comfortable cover against a Packers front that already frustrated Jared Goff in the 27-13 opener and has the pass-rush juice to keep this inside a field goal even if Detroit ultimately sneaks out a win. Given Detroit’s strong straight-up record as a favorite and their home-field ceiling, I don’t want to fade them entirely, but in a matchup with clear NFC North tiebreaker stakes and two top-tier defenses, taking the full three points with the healthier quarterback room and better recent form feels like the sharper side. Sources: recent schedules and results for both teams from league schedule data, efficiency, ATS records and defensive rankings from FOX Sports and similar statistical sources, detailed injury updates from official Packers and Lions reports plus local coverage, and contextual notes on the Week 1 matchup from the Packers’ recap and external stat services. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 27/11/2025 09:58sm