Packers vs Bears

The Packers limp into the postseason on a four-game losing streak, even if their Week 18 loss came with key starters resting, while the Bears have dropped two straight but still secured the NFC’s No. 2 seed and a 6-2 mark at Soldier Field. Green Bay’s defense has slid badly against the run down the stretch after season-ending front-seven injuries, and now it must deal with a Chicago rushing attack that finished top-tier in both EPA and success rate, exactly the kind of profile that travels in cold, windy, potentially flurry-filled January weather on the lakefront. Jordan Love is back under center and publicly downplaying any rust concerns, but he faces a Bears defense that has already shown it can create late-game chaos against him, helped by an aggressive pass rush, even as Chicago’s secondary takes a hit with C.J. Gardner-Johnson sidelined. On the other side, Williams just set the Bears’ single-season passing yardage mark and already owns a dramatic comeback win over these Packers, and he now gets a fuller skill group back around him in a win-or-go-home spot. With home field, the more reliable ground game in this weather, and Green Bay’s defensive injuries and recent form tilting the matchup, I like Chicago on the moneyline at -102, graded B+ for combining a modest edge in win probability with near-even price. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 09/01/2026 11:34

The total sits at 44.5 in a matchup where recent meetings have already shown both offenses can push into the mid-40s, and now both quarterbacks are in better form with higher ceilings than they were a year ago. Chicago’s run game has been one of the league’s most efficient, and it draws a Packers defense that has leaked explosive rushing performances since key front-seven injuries, while Green Bay’s own offense still boasts a productive Jordan Love–Christian Watson vertical connection and a workhorse back in Josh Jacobs who can exploit a Bears front missing an important piece in the secondary and relying on a heavy pass rush to compensate. Cold, low-30s temperatures with light snow showers and flurries tend to shift play-calling toward the run, but efficient run games and play-action shots are exactly how totals get pushed over in January—especially when both teams have already traded big plays against each other this season and the underdog (Green Bay) is live enough to keep Chicago throwing deep into the fourth quarter. With both implied team totals already in the low-20s and the combination of shaky tackling conditions, banged-up defenses, and two aggressive play-callers in a high-leverage playoff spot, I lean to Over 44.5 at -110, but volatility from weather and game script keeps it at a B- grade. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 09/01/2026 11:34

With the spread sitting at Packers -1, this projects as a true coin-flip game on paper, but several situational and matchup variables nudge me toward taking the small cushion with the Bears at +1. Green Bay arrives as the rare playoff team on a four-game skid, carrying questions about defensive confidence and physical wear, while Chicago’s two-game slide came via narrow, late losses that still left them as the conference’s No. 2 seed and showed Caleb Williams’ ability to drag the offense back from multi-score deficits. The Bears’ rushing edge versus a weakened Packers front seven, the return to near-full strength for Chicago’s receiving corps, and the absence of a key Bears defensive back are all amplified by cold, potentially snowy outdoor conditions that favor the deeper, more physical roster at home—especially one that already split the season series and ran effectively in both meetings. Given that I already like Chicago outright at nearly even money, grabbing +1 at -105 offers a slight additional margin against a one-point loss while still capturing the upside of a home favorite in all but name, which earns a B grade on the spread. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 09/01/2026 11:34