Panthers vs Lightning

Aleksander Barkov and the Panthers come in off a 4-0 shutout win over Dallas (so Florida’s on a one-game heater), while Tampa Bay enters off a 3-2 shootout loss to the Islanders that stalled its recent surge and keeps the “finish” questions hanging for a team that’s been streaky over the last two weeks. Injury context pushes this number toward the dog: Tampa is navigating major blue-line attrition with Victor Hedman headed for elbow surgery and Erik Cernak on long-term injured reserve, plus Andrei Vasilevskiy only listed as a possible return—enough uncertainty that Tampa’s own game notes have Jonas Johansson in the crease. In a matchup where opponent-history matters, Barkov (40 points in 47 career games vs Tampa Bay) and Sam Reinhart (18 career goals vs Tampa Bay) have been reliable drivers of Florida’s offense, and Sergei Bobrovsky’s longer-run body of work against the Lightning supports the idea that this turns into a goalie-and-structure game rather than a track meet. I’m taking the value on Florida at 118 in what profiles as a one-goal rivalry game. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 15/12/2025 09:23am

Florida’s one-game uptick is built on goaltending and game-state control, while Tampa’s recent form has swung between big offensive nights and games where it has to grind for looks—exactly the kind of volatility that often tightens up in this rivalry spot. The key injury layer also leans Under: with Hedman out and Cernak sidelined long term, Tampa may have to simplify its transition game and lean more on straight-line shifts, and if Vasilevskiy isn’t at full capacity (or doesn’t go), Tampa is more likely to protect Johansson with conservative neutral-zone decisions than trade rushes all night. On the matchup-history side, Tampa’s primary producers (Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point) can obviously break any total, but Florida’s best path here is letting Barkov’s line dictate pace and trusting Bobrovsky to keep the crease quiet—especially after a shutout performance in his last start. I’ll play Under 6 at -110, expecting a 3-2/4-2 type range with a real chance of a push at six. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 15/12/2025 09:23am

Florida’s current momentum (fresh off a shutout win) pairs well with a puckline that rewards their preferred style: structured layers, fewer odd-man looks, and letting Bobrovsky manage the high-danger saves, while Tampa’s most recent result (a shootout loss) reinforces how thin the margin can be when the Lightning don’t get a special-teams-fueled separation game. The injury landscape matters even more for a +1.5: with Hedman out and Cernak on LTIR, Tampa’s back end is missing key minute-eaters, and if the Vasilevskiy situation remains fluid, the “win by margin” case gets harder even at home. And in terms of opponent-specific trends, Kucherov and Point will generate chances (they always do against Florida), but Barkov and Reinhart have long track records of keeping this matchup in reach, and Bobrovsky’s history versus Tampa supports Florida hanging around even if they’re chasing the game late. I don’t love the price, but I do like the protection—Panthers +1.5 at -220. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 15/12/2025 09:23am