Panthers vs Senators

Brady Tkachuk and the Senators limp back to Ottawa on a three-game skid and having dropped five of their last seven, while the defending champion Panthers arrive on a six-game road swing having just been handled by both Toronto and Montreal after a statement win over Colorado. With Linus Ullmark still on personal leave and Ottawa sitting dead last in team save percentage despite scrambling for help with James Reimer, Florida’s path to two points runs straight through shaky Sens goaltending, even with Aleksander Barkov and Matthew Tkachuk yet to play this season, Seth Jones sidelined, and Brad Marchand banged up. Ottawa’s top forwards — Tkachuk, Tim Stutzle and Dylan Cozens — have historically produced well at home, but Florida’s depth spine of Sam Bennett, Anton Lundell, Sam Reinhart and Carter Verhaeghe, all firmly entrenched on the active roster, has already rolled this matchup once in a 6-2 win back in October. With both clubs hovering just above .500 past the 41-game mark and jostling for wild-card positioning, this feels like a classic “structure vs chaos” spot where Florida’s championship habits and the Sens’ fragile netminding tilt a near-coinflip price toward the visitors; I grade Panthers -105 a B, reflecting solid edge at almost even return but real injury-driven downside. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 10/01/2026 09:46

The recent scoring profile on both sides screams variance: Ottawa’s last three saw 4-3 and 5-3 decisions before getting bombed 8-2 in Denver, while Florida’s last trio went 2-1, 4-1 and 6-2, with only the airtight win over Colorado landing comfortably under this number. The Senators continue to play a high-tempo, chance-trading style powered by Tkachuk and Stutzle, but without Ullmark their replacement tandem has been lit up repeatedly, prompting the organization to reach for Reimer just to stabilize the position. Florida’s offense is clearly capped without Barkov and Matthew Tkachuk and possibly Marchand, yet Bennett’s extended heater and a still-dangerous Reinhart/Verhaeghe-driven attack should find plenty of looks against a defense that just bled six in the first meeting and sits near the bottom of the league in goals against. With both teams past the halfway mark and desperate for points, there’s little incentive to sit on a lead, and special-teams volatility only increases given Ottawa’s strong power play and Florida’s injury-thinned blue line; I lean into the market’s expectation of a high-event game and grade Over 6 at -138 a B-, acknowledging a strong likelihood of seven-plus combined goals but a mediocre payout relative to the risk if Tarasov or a suddenly hot Sens goalie steals the script. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 10/01/2026 09:46

Given how erratic both clubs have been, the puckline comes down to whether Ottawa’s offense can finally turn territorial pressure into a multi-goal home win against a battered but still structured Panthers side. Florida has just been beaten by three and four goals on this trip and is missing its top center, its emotional power forward, its minutes-eating No. 1 defenseman and potentially its leading scorer, so there is real blowout risk on a back-to-back-heavy January schedule; on the other hand, the Sens are riding a three-game losing streak, have allowed at least four goals in several recent outings, and are pinning hopes on a patchwork crease that couldn’t keep Colorado, Detroit or even Washington to manageable totals. Historical series results are close to dead even over the long haul, and this season’s first matchup was competitive until Florida’s depth pulled away, which, combined with the Senators’ uneven five-on-five defending, suggests a decent chance the visitors keep this within one even if they lose outright. Still, laying -220 on a road team this depleted in a barn where Ottawa’s top forwards traditionally push the pace is a marginal proposition at best, so I grade Panthers +1.5 a C+: relatively likely to cash but with limited monetary upside and more scoreline volatility than that price deserves. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 10/01/2026 09:46