Oilers vs Jets

Connor McDavid and the Oilers head into Canada Life Centre as short road favorites at -125, and with both teams on the second half of a back-to-back, the combination of current form, injuries and matchup history still tilts this moneyline toward Edmonton. The Oilers sit 19-14-6 and second in the Pacific, having gone 3-2 over their last five, while Winnipeg has slid to 15-17-4 and seventh in the Central on a five-game losing streak, and both depth charts are current as of Monday with Edmonton’s main core (McDavid, Draisaitl, Nugent-Hopkins, Hyman, Bouchard, Ekholm) and Winnipeg’s key forwards (Scheifele, Kyle Connor, Vilardi, Toews) all listed as active on the latest ESPN rosters. McDavid has historically shredded the Jets with 61 points in 36 career games, and that high-end talent edge is magnified by Winnipeg’s injury situation: captain Adam Lowry is rehabbing from hip surgery, Cole Perfetti is week-to-week, Dylan Samberg remains out with a broken wrist, and top defender Josh Morrissey is now day-to-day, leaving Connor Hellebuyck facing a lot of rubber behind a thinned-out blue line. Given Edmonton has taken the last two meetings by multi-goal margins and is driving play more effectively at five-on-five than a Jets group bleeding chances during this skid, I rate Oilers -125 as slightly better than the implied edge and assign it a Grade A- on the blend of win probability and price. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 29/12/2025 09:29.

With the total set at 6.5 (Over 100, Under -120), I lean to the Over thanks to Edmonton’s sustained offensive pressure, Winnipeg’s defensive attrition, and the way both teams’ recent games have played out. The Oilers are averaging about 3.4 goals per night with McDavid already at 24 goals and 68 points and driving a lethal power play, and they’ve pushed that to 3.6 goals per game over their last 10, while game logs show the Jets being outscored 32-27 across their last 10 outings, including a 4-3 overtime loss to Minnesota on Saturday that extended their losing streak. Even on a back-to-back, a Jets blue line that could be missing Morrissey on top of Samberg’s absence, plus a forward group still without Lowry and Perfetti, should struggle to contain Edmonton’s top six and their point-driving defensemen like Bouchard, creating both five-on-five and special-teams scoring upside despite the presence of an elite netminder in Hellebuyck. At even money, I’m comfortable grading Over 6.5 as a solid B: not as safe as the side because of goaltending variance, but offering a fair balance between likelihood and price in a matchup that has all the ingredients for a 4-3 type scoreline. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 29/12/2025 09:29.

For the puckline, I prefer taking the swing with Edmonton -1.5 at 196 rather than laying the heavy -240 on Winnipeg +1.5, because the matchup and recent head-to-heads suggest the Oilers win by multiple goals often enough to justify the extra risk. Edmonton’s top-end offense — with McDavid’s long-term dominance against the Jets, Draisaitl coming off a recent hat trick performance, and a healthy Ekholm–Bouchard pair pushing play from the back — has already translated into their last two meetings being decided by multi-goal Oilers wins (4-1 in Winnipeg and 6-2 in Edmonton). Winnipeg’s current five-game skid, combined with the loss of Lowry down the middle, Perfetti’s ankle issue, Samberg’s broken wrist, and Morrissey’s day-to-day status, leaves them relying heavily on Hellebuyck to keep games tight, and that can still unravel quickly into an empty-net cover scenario if they’re chasing late. Because Hellebuyck is good enough to steal a one-goal result on his own and schedule fatigue on a back-to-back can introduce extra variance, I grade Oilers -1.5 at 196 as a B- value play — high risk but with a payout that makes sense as a smaller, more aggressive position alongside the moneyline. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 29/12/2025 09:29.