Oilers vs Canadiens

Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl head into Montreal riding a five-game point streak for the Oilers as a team (4-0-1 over that stretch), fresh off back‑to‑back multi-point nights in decisive wins over Detroit and Toronto, while the Canadiens have alternated wins and losses over their last six and just coughed up a 3-0 lead in last night’s overtime loss at Madison Square Garden. With Zach Hyman back healthy and rolling after his hat trick against the Red Wings, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Evan Bouchard and new addition Tristan Jarry all active on the current ESPN roster, Edmonton’s top‑end talent and improved depth are in a better place than a Montreal side still missing Alex Newhook, Kaiden Guhle and Patrik Laine for months, which thins both their middle six and blue line. Recent head-to-heads have tilted toward Edmonton—with tight OT wins in 2024 and 2025 plus a 6-5 track meet at Rogers Place earlier this season—but Sam Montembeault’s 3-0 shutout at Bell Centre last year is a reminder this building has given the Oilers trouble, tempering confidence in laying a bigger price. Both clubs are on the back half of a back-to-back, but Montreal’s heavier recent home workload and reliance on Cole Caufield/Nick Suzuki to drive most of the offense make me lean to Edmonton’s deeper, hotter attack at a modest road number. I’ll play Oilers -125 on the moneyline with a solid but not elite B grade given the travel, back-to-back variance and Montreal’s home-ice feistiness. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 14/12/2025 09:33. ([nhl.com](https://www.nhl.com/oilers/news/game-recap-oilers-6-maple-leafs-3-12-13-25))

With Edmonton’s offense finally humming and Montreal playing wide‑open hockey of late, the total sets up nicely for goals despite both teams coming in on short rest. The Oilers have exploded for 29 goals across their last five outings (9 against Seattle, 6 versus Winnipeg, 3 in an OT loss to Buffalo, then 4 and 6 in wins over Detroit and Toronto), driven by a reunited McDavid–Draisaitl–Hyman trio and a power play that’s rediscovered its bite, while the Canadiens’ recent run includes a 4-3 loss to St. Louis, a 6-1 home defeat to Tampa Bay, a 4-2 win in Pittsburgh and last night’s 5-4 OT loss at MSG—four straight games landing on 6+ goals. Montreal is missing key defensive pieces in Guhle and Laine (who also plays on the top PP when healthy), forcing Martin St. Louis to lean on young, offensive-minded defensemen like Lane Hutson and Noah Dobson and forwards like Caufield, Juraj Slafkovsky and Ivan Demidov, which boosts their scoring ceiling but exposes them in transition. Edmonton, meanwhile, no longer has the steadier Stuart Skinner after the Jarry trade and has been living with high‑event hockey in front of an adjusting goalie corps, which, combined with both teams’ travel and back‑to‑back fatigue, points to breakdowns and power-play time on both sides. Given the recent 6-5 barnburner between these teams this season and multiple one-goal, OT‑decided meetings that still comfortably threatened this number, I like Over 6.5 at -105 with a B+ grade, expecting both star‑driven attacks to push this into 7+ territory more often than not. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 14/12/2025 09:33. ([nhl.com](https://www.nhl.com/news/seattle-kraken-edmonton-oilers-game-recap-december-4-2025?utm_source=openai))

Even while I favor Edmonton to win outright, the recent history and current context of this matchup nudge me toward Montreal +1.5 on the puckline, albeit at a steep -225 price that caps the grade. Both teams are on the second night of a back‑to‑back with travel, which tends to compress scoring margins, and the Canadiens have been scrappy even in defeat—going to overtime in New York after building a 3-0 lead, edging Winnipeg and Toronto in shootouts, and hanging around in a 4-3 loss to St. Louis despite being outplayed early. Edmonton’s recent surge has delivered decisive box scores, but against Montreal specifically they’ve needed OT for two of their last three wins and escaped 6-5 at home earlier this season; the lone recent Habs victory in the series was a 3-0 shutout at Bell Centre behind a locked‑in Montembeault, underscoring how often this matchup stays within one goal. With Newhook, Guhle and Laine sidelined, Montreal’s ceiling drops, yet they still roll out a competitive core of Suzuki, Caufield, Slafkovsky, Demidov and Alexandre Texier from an ESPN‑confirmed active roster, and St. Louis has leaned into structure-first game plans at home after some early‑season shootouts. Given Edmonton’s superior high‑end talent, I don’t love laying the +185 on -1.5 in a back‑to‑back spot on the road, so the better combination of probability and price for me is Montreal +1.5 at -225, graded C+ because it’s likely to cash but offers limited monetary value relative to the juice and variance in a high‑event series. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 14/12/2025 09:33. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nhl/team/roster/_/name/mon/sort/age/montreal-canadiens))