Oilers vs Wild

With Minnesota riding a six-game win streak and Edmonton on a two-game road surge, this spot sets up as strength-on-strength, but the Wild’s current form and matchup edges tilt me toward the home side at -130. Minnesota has stacked six straight wins behind a suffocating defensive stretch and alternating strong starts from Filip Gustavsson and Jesper Wallstedt, while Edmonton has stabilized but still concedes more than three goals per game on the season and just lost newly acquired starter Tristan Jarry to injured reserve, likely forcing Stuart Skinner or Calvin Pickard into this back-to-back-heavy road swing. The Wild blue line is banged up (Jonas Brodin, Jake Middleton, Zach Bogosian, Daemon Hunt and Mats Zuccarello all sidelined or on IR), yet their defensive structure has held up, allowing just nine goals over their last five games, whereas Edmonton’s injuries are concentrated in goal and depth forwards, which matters less than losing their new No. 1 goalie right as the schedule tightens. Historically this matchup favors Minnesota in Saint Paul (64-33-10 all-time vs Edmonton, 33-17-3 at home, plus a 1-0 road shutout of the Oilers earlier this season), and even McDavid’s excellent career line of 12-20–32 in 26 games versus the Wild hasn’t flipped the series narrative in Edmonton’s favor. At -130, the implied win probability is around 56–57%; given Minnesota’s current form, home-ice advantage, and Edmonton’s goaltending uncertainty, I rate their true chances closer to 60–62%, which is a modest but real edge for standard unit sizing, so I’ll play Wild moneyline with an A- grade for likelihood and solid, if unspectacular, monetary value. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 20/12/2025 09:27. ([nhl.com](https://www.nhl.com/wild/news/game-preview-vs-edmonton-oilers-122025?utm_source=openai))

The total at 6.5 is high enough that I lean under, even acknowledging the Oilers’ elite offense and power play, because the recent form and season-long numbers suggest only a small cushion toward a lower-scoring script. Minnesota has allowed two goals or fewer in five of its last six during this winning streak, including shutouts of Washington and several games where Gustavsson and Wallstedt faced modest shot volumes, while the Wild’s own scoring has been strong but not consistently track-meet level. On the season, these teams combine to average about 6.4 goals per game with opponents averaging 5.8, and Minnesota games have gone over 6.5 only 14 times in 35, which contrasts with Edmonton’s more volatile profile (19 of 35 over 6.5) but still points to a total that’s slightly inflated relative to projected scoring around 6.2 goals. The Wild’s blue-line injuries do introduce some risk of defensive regression, yet their structure and recent shutout-heavy run offset that, and Edmonton’s missing Jarry in net increases variance but also could make their already Central-heavy road run a bit more conservative five-on-five. At Under 6.5 (-120), you’re paying juice for a modest statistical edge rather than a slam dunk; I grade this a B—reasonable likelihood and moderate value but not something I’d overload compared with the side. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 20/12/2025 09:27. ([reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/sports/nhl/filip-gustavsson-makes-25-saves-wild-shut-out-capitals--flm-2025-12-17/?utm_source=openai))

Given Minnesota’s six-game heater, dominant all-time home edge over Edmonton and current role as the moneyline favorite, grabbing the Wild at +1.5 goals at -192 is a conservative way to back the home side, effectively betting Edmonton will not win by multiple goals. Minnesota has won six straight and 10 of its last 11, and during this run only one game has landed on a multi-goal loss for the Wild, while the season series is already 1-0 in their favor after a 1-0 road shutout in Edmonton earlier this month. The Wild’s home dominance in this matchup (33-17-3 all-time at home vs the Oilers) pairs with a still-intact forward core featuring Kaprizov, Boldy and Joel Eriksson Ek, whereas Edmonton’s attack remains top tier but is now backed by a patchwork goaltending situation and a blue line that has occasionally bled chances on this long road swing. Because the puckline price is expensive, the monetary return is modest, but I see the probability of Minnesota either winning outright or keeping this to a one-goal result as quite high, making Wild +1.5 (-192) a B+ grade play for those comfortable laying chalk to reduce variance. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 20/12/2025 09:27. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nhl/team/schedule/_/name/min))