Red Wings vs Maple Leafs

Detroit rides a two-game winning streak into Scotiabank Arena while Toronto is coming off a home loss to Minnesota that snapped a seven-game home heater and left the Leafs 1-2-1 over their last four, setting the table for a high-leverage Atlantic clash between a 30-16-4 Red Wings team sitting second in the division and a 24-17-8 Leafs squad still clawing through the wild-card mix.([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nhl/standings)) The big injury swing favors Detroit: William Nylander, Toronto’s leading scorer with 48 points in 37 games, remains sidelined with a lower-body issue just days before this matchup, while Detroit’s core of Larkin, Lucas Raymond, Alex DeBrincat and Patrick Kane is intact per the current ESPN rosters.([nhl.com](https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-status-report-news-and-notes-january-17-2026?utm_source=openai)) Head-to-head, Detroit is already 2-0-0 against Toronto this season, with a 6-3 win in Detroit followed by a 3-2 regulation win in Toronto fueled by multi-point nights from Raymond, DeBrincat, Kane and a late Mason Appleton game-winner, reinforcing that the Wings’ skill can translate in this specific matchup even on the road.([nhl.com](https://www.nhl.com/redwings/news/preview-red-wings-maple-leafs-set-to-add-another-chapter-to-their-original-six-rivalry-on-sunday-night?utm_source=openai)) Add in that Detroit’s balanced scoring and improving goaltending have them at +4 goal differential with solid road results, while Toronto’s strong 16-6-5 home record is now dented and their defensive lapses just allowed six against the Wild, and you get a spot where the slightly hotter and deeper team is nonetheless priced as a short underdog at 100.([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nhl/standings)) With both clubs past the 41-game mark and fighting for seeding in a tight Atlantic, grabbing Detroit’s moneyline at even money offers a respectable blend of edge and payout despite Toronto’s home-ice edge and Auston Matthews’ current three-game goal streak, so the recommendation is Red Wings moneyline at 100, graded a B for solid but not elite value.([nhl.com](https://www.nhl.com/news/minnesota-wild-toronto-maple-leafs-game-recap-january-19-2026?utm_source=openai)) Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 21/01/2026 09:23

From a totals perspective, the recent form and profiles scream offense: Detroit comes in hot after a run of multi-goal wins driven by Raymond, DeBrincat, Kane and Larkin, while Toronto games have tilted high event, including a 6-3 home loss to Minnesota in which Joseph Woll was chased after allowing five on 29 shots.([nhl.com](https://www.nhl.com/news/san-jose-sharks-detroit-red-wings-game-recap-january-16-2026?utm_source=openai)) The standings back up the eye test, with Detroit averaging just over 3.1 goals for and 3.0 against per game and Toronto at roughly 3.4 for and 3.3 against, putting their combined scoring environment in the mid‑6s before accounting for pace and special teams.([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nhl/standings)) Head-to-head this season, the totals have landed on nine and five goals (6-3 and 3-2 Detroit wins), and the rosters suggest similar firepower again: Detroit’s top six and power play remain intact via ESPN’s current roster, while Toronto’s top-end threat is still anchored by Matthews, John Tavares and Morgan Rielly even with Nylander out.([nhl.com](https://www.nhl.com/redwings/news/preview-red-wings-maple-leafs-set-to-add-another-chapter-to-their-original-six-rivalry-on-sunday-night?utm_source=openai)) Factor in that both teams are in the thick of the playoff race and have every incentive to push for two points in regulation, plus Toronto’s recent 9-2-3 surge before the Minnesota loss was driven more by outscoring opponents than locking games down defensively, and a total of 6 with the Over at -125 still profiles as slightly short of where their offensive ceilings and defensive issues point.([nhl.com](https://www.nhl.com/wild/news/game-preview-at-toronto-maple-leafs-011926?utm_source=openai)) Given the juice and the small but real chance of a 3-2 or 4-2 script if Detroit’s structure travels and Nylander’s absence drags Toronto’s secondary scoring, this Over 6 at -125 grades out as a B- recommendation: the math leans high-scoring, but the price trims the edge.([nhl.com](https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-status-report-news-and-notes-january-17-2026?utm_source=openai)) Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 21/01/2026 09:23

With Detroit already 2-0-0 against Toronto this season and showing they can both blow the Leafs out 6-3 in Detroit and grind out a 3-2 win in Toronto, backing the Red Wings at +1.5 on the puckline leans into a matchup that has consistently stayed inside one or flipped outright toward Detroit.([nhl.com](https://www.nhl.com/redwings/news/preview-red-wings-maple-leafs-set-to-add-another-chapter-to-their-original-six-rivalry-on-sunday-night?utm_source=openai)) The current context matters: Detroit has won seven of its last ten and carries a two-game streak into town, while Toronto, despite an excellent 16-6-5 home mark, just had its seven-game home run snapped and is dealing with Nylander’s lower-body injury plus ongoing shuffling on the back end, all confirmed on the latest NHL status reports and ESPN roster.([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nhl/standings)) Detroit’s lineup construction—with Larkin-Raimond-DeBrincat-Kane up front and a mobile defense led by Simon Edvinsson and Erik Gustafsson—has given Toronto trouble in transition and on the power play, while Matthews’ line has had to shoulder even more of the offensive burden in Nylander’s absence, a dynamic that often produces close, high-leverage third periods rather than comfortable Leafs blowouts.([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nhl/team/roster/_/name/det/detroit-red-wings)) In a game with real playoff-seeding weight for both sides and with Detroit showing it can hang at five‑on‑five and attack Toronto’s occasionally loose defensive zone coverage, paying -230 for Detroit +1.5 is chalky but still attractive, since it likely only fails if the Leafs win by multiple goals—a scenario the season series and current form don’t strongly support—so the puckline recommendation is Red Wings +1.5 (-230), graded B+ for high probability but modest monetary upside.([nhl.com](https://www.nhl.com/redwings/news/preview-red-wings-maple-leafs-set-to-add-another-chapter-to-their-original-six-rivalry-on-sunday-night?utm_source=openai)) Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 21/01/2026 09:23