Red Wings vs Kraken

Dylan Larkin and the Detroit Red Wings roll into Seattle trying to snap a 1-3-1 skid, but they at least bring 3.0 goals per game, a top-10 power play and a top line of Larkin–Raymond–DeBrincat that can punish a Kraken penalty kill sitting under 70% and recently shredded for 9 goals by Edmonton. Seattle’s in worse current form at 0-3-1 in its last four and has been outscored 22-6 over that stretch, while also missing key forwards Jaden Schwartz (IR) and Max McCormick (out for the year) and managing only about 2.5 goals per night despite solid goaltending from Joey Daccord and Philipp Grubauer. The most recent head-to-head on November 19 was a 4-2 Red Wings win in Detroit that required an empty-netter from Larkin but also showed how Detroit’s young depth (Danielson, Finnie, Sandin-Pellikka) and puck-moving blue line could crack Seattle’s structure, even with Daccord in net. Detroit does have defensive issues (3.46 goals against per game, mediocre penalty kill) and is only 5-5-2 on the road, but Seattle’s limited shot volume, reliance on grinding low-event games, and current lack of finishing talent beyond Jared McCann and Jordan Eberle make it hard to trust the home side in regulation, especially with the Red Wings desperate to bank points while sitting 11th in the East in a tight early wild-card race. With both teams mostly healthy outside the noted injuries per the current ESPN rosters, I’m taking the higher offensive ceiling and special-teams edge and backing Detroit Red Wings (-125) on the moneyline; I’d grade this an A- play for a strong likelihood of being right and decent value relative to an implied win probability in the mid-50s. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 06/12/2025 09:56am

The total of 6 feels sharp because Detroit profiles as an over team (3.04 goals for, 3.46 against, top-5 in shots per game) while Seattle’s season-long numbers (about 2.5 goals for, 2.6 against on low shot volume) look more under-friendly, but the recent trend has been chaos: the Kraken have just been lit up for 9 and 4 by Edmonton in back-to-back meetings and their penalty kill is hemorrhaging goals, whereas Detroit has scored 11 times in its last two outings alone. Special teams are the biggest swing factor here—Larkin, DeBrincat, Raymond and Patrick Kane drive a Red Wings power play around 24%, and they now face a Kraken PK under 70% that has been repeatedly exposed, giving Detroit multiple paths to three or four goals even if five-on-five play is reasonably controlled. On the other side, the Wings’ defensive structure and goaltending tandem of Cam Talbot and John Gibson have been leaky enough that even a slumping Seattle attack featuring McCann, Eberle and Matty Beniers should generate something, especially with Detroit on the second leg of a western trip and habitually surrendering late goals. Their previous 4-2 meeting in Detroit landed right on 6 (with an empty-netter), and while both coaches will stress tightening up after recent scorelines, the combination of Detroit’s pace, Seattle’s special-teams issues and the overall defensive volatility on both sides nudges me toward a 4-3 type script more often than not. I’ll play Over 6 (-105) and grade it a B: reasonable edge and solid plus-return if it clears, but still dependent on Seattle breaking through enough that a low-scoring Kraken no-show doesn’t drag this into a push or narrow under. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 06/12/2025 09:56am

For the puckline, Detroit’s profile as a shaky front-runner and Seattle’s tendency to live in one-goal territory make the plus-goal-and-a-half with the home underdog more attractive than chasing a multi-goal win from a flawed road favorite. The Kraken are 11-8-6 with six overtime or shootout losses already, and their defensive metrics—about 2.6 goals against per game on 27–28 shots allowed—suggest that despite the recent Edmonton debacles, their underlying structure with Brandon Montour, Vince Dunn, Adam Larsson and Ryan Lindgren is still capable of keeping things tight in front of Daccord/Grubauer, particularly at Climate Pledge Arena where they sit 6-3-3. Detroit, meanwhile, just blew a late lead in Columbus in a 6-5 shootout loss and has repeatedly coughed up advantages, and their earlier 4-2 win over Seattle needed an empty-netter in the final 30 seconds, reinforcing how narrow the margin can be when the Kraken clog the middle and slow the game down. With the Red Wings down depth center Mason Appleton and the Kraken missing Schwartz and perhaps Mason Marchment short term, both benches are leaning heavily on their top six, which often translates into conservative third periods and one-goal outcomes rather than extended blowouts—especially in a cross-conference game where both sides are hovering just outside the early playoff picture and every point matters. I expect Detroit’s superior finishing to give it a slight edge overall, but the game state and stylistic matchup favor Seattle hanging around, so I prefer Seattle Kraken +1.5 (-250) on the puckline; I’ll grade it B+ because it should cash a high percentage of the time, though the steep price keeps it from elite value territory. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 06/12/2025 09:56am