Moneyline Pick - Detroit Red Wings (125): B
Dropped into this spot on a two-game slide after back-to-back losses to Pittsburgh but still 5-2-1 over their last eight, the Red Wings face a Senators team riding a two-game home win streak and a 6-3 run over its last nine as Ottawa hits its 41st game and tries to claw into the Eastern playoff mix. With no current injuries listed for Detroit and Ottawa missing Linus Ullmark (personal leave) and Lars Eller, the Sens are again leaning on Leevi Merilainen behind a strong but penalty-prone group, while Detroit brings a fully healthy core built around Larkin, Lucas Raymond and Alex DeBrincat. Historically, Brady Tkachuk has done real damage to Detroit (17 points in 23 career games), but Larkin (21 points in 34 vs Ottawa) and DeBrincat (11 points in 15 vs the Senators) have consistently produced in this matchup, and the Wings pair a top-tier power play with a clearly superior penalty kill compared to Ottawa’s bottom-ranked PK. Given Detroit’s overall form, cleaner special teams, healthier crease and seven-point edge in the standings in what still profiles as close to a coin-flip game, the value sits on the underdog Red Wings at 125, but the Sens’ recent surge and home-ice push keep this to a B-grade Moneyline recommendation. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 05/01/2026 09:27
Over/Under Pick - Over 6, (-125): B-
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These clubs come in with Detroit allowing 3.16 goals per game and scoring 3, while Ottawa is at 3.25 for and 3.23 against, and the Sens’ recent 4-3 and 4-2 home wins plus Detroit’s 4-3 and 4-1 results against Pittsburgh all point to a pace that naturally clusters around the 6-goal number. Ottawa’s elite power play (top five) and dreadful penalty kill (last in the league) meeting a Detroit man-advantage that’s also top-six is a recipe for multiple special-teams strikes, especially with Ullmark out and Merilainen starting instead of a Vezina-caliber goaltender, while Tim Stutzle’s extended scoring streak keeps Ottawa’s top line humming. Detroit’s defensive structure and above-average PK are reasons for caution, but when you combine both teams’ mid-pack defensive numbers, Ottawa’s tendency to suppress shots but still give up quality, and the likelihood of late-game score effects if either side is chasing critical playoff-position points, Over 6 at -125 has enough offensive support and push protection to warrant a B- grade on the total. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 05/01/2026 09:27
Puckline Pick - Detroit Red Wings, +1.5 (-188): B-
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With Detroit sitting at 24-15-4 despite a slightly negative goal differential and Ottawa at 20-15-5 with a modestly positive differential, the underlying scoring profile and recent form suggest another tight one-goal Atlantic battle rather than a blowout either way. Ottawa’s two-game heater and strong home splits are countered by Detroit’s broader run of solid play over the last few weeks and a clean injury sheet, while the Senators are down Ullmark and Eller and again turning to Merilainen behind a high-event, power-play-driven attack that often keeps opponents within striking distance. Given how frequently Brady Tkachuk and Stutzle drag Ottawa into late, one-goal games and how often Larkin, Raymond and DeBrincat have kept Detroit competitive in this specific matchup, taking Detroit at +1.5 goals provides a sizable cushion in what projects as a playoff-caliber, one-score contest more often than not. The price at -188 dings the value enough to cap this as a B- rather than a higher-confidence edge, but for bettors prioritizing probability over payout, the Wings puckline is a reasonable way to back Detroit’s resilience while still respecting Ottawa’s recent surge. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 05/01/2026 09:27
