Pistons vs Heat

Cade Cunningham and the Pistons arrive in Miami fresh off having a 13-game winning streak snapped and then dropping a turnover-heavy Cup game to Orlando, while the Heat counter with a six-game surge and a 13-6 mark behind the league’s most explosive offense. With Detroit’s core rotation largely intact outside depth pieces Bobi Klintman (out) and Marcus Sasser (still sidelined), and Miami listing Norman Powell and Andrew Wiggins as probable, Jaime Jaquez Jr. questionable, and Terry Rozier still inactive, both teams should have most of their creators available. Cunningham’s history against this matchup — including a 20-point, 18-assist, 11-rebound triple-double in last December’s 125-124 OT win over Miami and a recent 39-point triple-double — suggests he can stress a Heat defense allowing north of 117 points per night, even as Tyler Herro returns from ankle surgery to reprise the role of Detroit-killer after a 40-point outing versus the Pistons last season. Detroit owns a top-10 offense and top-5 defense by early-season metrics, and in what profiles closer to a coin flip than the -160/+135 market is pricing, I like the value side and will take the Pistons moneyline at +135, grading it a B for solid but not slam-dunk value. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 29/11/2025 09:42am

Tyler Herro’s return has juiced a Miami attack that was already leading the league at roughly 125 points per game and has powered a six-game win streak with recent shootouts like 140-138, 127-117, and 106-103. Even if Jaquez ends up sitting and Wiggins or Powell are managing minor issues, Miami’s wing depth plus Detroit’s mostly healthy core (outside Klintman and Sasser) still leaves a floor packed with scorers and playmakers on both sides. Herro has repeatedly gone off against Detroit — from last season’s 40-piece to 24 and 29 points in his first two games back this week — while Cunningham just stacked a 39-point triple-double and previously carved up the Heat for 20-18-11 in that 125-124 OT thriller, so the stars have already shown they can shred these specific coverages. With the Pistons averaging nearly 120 scored and about 112 allowed, the Heat putting up just under 125 a night, and Miami playing at a top-of-the-league pace, the 239 total is lofty but still reachable in a game where both offenses are in rhythm and recent form trends toward fireworks, so I’ll lean to Over 239 at -110 with a B- grade given the high number and modest edge. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 29/11/2025 09:42am

Bam Adebayo’s two-way engine has driven Miami to a 9-1 home record, but Detroit has already proved it can hang in this matchup with last season’s 125-124 OT win and, more recently, a 13-game run that vaulted the Pistons to the East’s best record. While the Heat enter on that six-game heater and the Pistons on a mini two-game skid, injuries tilt only slightly toward Miami’s side being more dinged — Rozier still out, Jaquez questionable, Wiggins and Powell just coming off the injury report — whereas Detroit’s only listed absences are depth pieces, keeping the Cunningham–Duren–Harris–Thompson core intact. Historically, Cunningham has thrived attacking Miami’s switching schemes, and the Duren/Isaiah Stewart front line can at least battle the Adebayo–Kel’el Ware tandem on the glass, limiting one of the Heat’s usual home-court advantages. Given Detroit’s top-5 net rating, ability to generate turnovers and win the possession battle, prior success versus Miami, and the cushion of a full three points in what projects as another one- or two-possession game, I’m grabbing Pistons +3 at -110 with a B+ grade as a slightly stronger value play than the moneyline. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 29/11/2025 09:42am