Red Wings vs Blackhawks

Dylan Larkin and the Red Wings roll into Chicago having banked seven of a possible ten points on this six-game road swing, even after Thursday’s 4-1 loss in Edmonton, while the Blackhawks limp in at 3-7-2 over their last 12 and off a draining 3-2 defeat in St. Louis on Friday. With Detroit 17-12-3 overall and a respectable 8-6-2 on the road against a Chicago side that’s 13-12-6 with only a modest home-ice edge, the form and underlying shot metrics tilt toward the visitors. The real story, though, is health: Detroit’s only notable absence is depth center Mason Appleton, whereas Chicago is now missing Connor Bedard — their leading scorer with 19 goals and 40-plus points — after a right-shoulder injury on Friday, on top of Nick Foligno and Jason Dickinson already on injured reserve and Tyler Bertuzzi banged up, stripping the forward group of play-driving and finishing. Even though the Hawks thumped Detroit 5-1 in November behind a Bedard three-point night and a 45-save clinic from Arvid Soderblom, that formula is gone for this rematch, and a tired Chicago team likely leans on its weaker goaltending option in the back-to-back. Detroit’s top line of Larkin, Alex DeBrincat and Lucas Raymond, plus a blue line anchored by Moritz Seider, should generate enough sustained pressure against a roster that was already underwater in shot differential before losing its franchise center. At -190, the implied win rate sits around 65%, which is close to fair; with Detroit’s situational edges but limited price discount, this is a solid but not elite value play, hence the B+ grade. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 13/12/2025 09:52.

Both teams’ recent trajectories and tonight’s circumstances quietly lean toward a tighter, lower-scoring script than the 6.5 total suggests, especially with Bedard unavailable. Detroit is averaging about 3.06 goals for and 3.34 against this season, while Chicago sits near 2.9 scored and just under 3.0 allowed, so their baseline offensive output points more toward a total in the 5.5–6.0 range rather than a true seven-goal environment. Chicago’s attack has been streaky and heavily Bedard-driven, and removing a 19-goal, 40-plus-point centerpiece on the second night of a back-to-back is a major drag on chance creation, particularly for a team that already ranks in the bottom third in shots per game. On the other side, Detroit’s offense has been humming on this trip with multiple four-goal outings, but they’re also in their third road game in four nights, which typically nudges pace and forecheck pressure down a notch, especially if Todd McLellan leans into a more structured road-style game after that 5-1 loss to Chicago last month. Given Chicago’s average defensive numbers, Spencer Knight’s solid work this year, and the likelihood that the Blackhawks deploy a conservative game plan without their star, a 4-2 or 3-2 type of result is more common than needing seven or more goals. With the market already shading toward the Under at -125, the edge is moderate rather than huge, earning this Under 6.5 a B grade. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 13/12/2025 09:52.

The puckline hinges on whether Detroit can translate its situational edge into separation on the scoreboard, and Chicago’s recent profile makes that a realistic but higher-variance angle. The Bedard injury strips Chicago of its primary game-breaking threat and power-play focal point on a night when they’re also dealing with back-to-back fatigue and existing injuries to veterans like Nick Foligno and Jason Dickinson, which is a bad mix for a team that’s already been hammered in some recent losses (6-0 to the Kings and 7-1 to the Ducks). Detroit has shown it can win by margin this season — including lopsided results like 5-1 over Montreal, 6-3 and 5-2 over St. Louis, and a 4-0 shutout in Vancouver — and tonight they face a Blackhawks lineup likely turning to Arvid Soderblom in net again, who stole the November meeting but has weaker season-long numbers than Spencer Knight. If the Red Wings’ top six gets rolling and their territorial edge shows up early, Chicago’s thin forward depth without Bedard is poorly suited to chase the game, raising the probability of multi-goal empty-net scenarios in the third. That said, laying -1.5 on the road against a disciplined defensive structure that can still keep games close is inherently swingy, so while the matchup supports a Detroit cover more often than not, the volatility and juice keep this at a B- rather than a stronger endorsement. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 13/12/2025 09:52.