Lions vs Bears

With Detroit riding a three-game losing streak and battling cluster injuries along the offensive line and at linebacker, this looks like a spot where Chicago’s overall form and motivation tilt the Moneyline toward the Bears at -160. Detroit has dropped three straight while rushing for just 153 yards combined, a product of constant shuffling up front with Taylor Decker, Penei Sewell, Graham Glasgow and others either limited or missing practice, which has left Jared Goff leaning heavily on the pass despite a strong 4,233-yard, 33-touchdown season. Chicago, by contrast, has gone 11-3 since that ugly Week 2 blowout in Detroit, riding Caleb Williams’ 3,700-plus passing yards, an elite two-back ground game, and an offensive line that’s cut his sacks from 68 last year to just 23, even if they’re coming off a narrow 42-38 loss to the 49ers. Playoff stakes further boost the home side’s focus—Chicago has already clinched the division but still needs a win (or Eagles loss) to lock down the NFC’s 2-seed, while the eliminated Lions are mostly jockeying for draft position and future schedule strength. The main caveat is that Detroit has won six of the last seven in this rivalry, including a 52-21 demolition earlier this year, and their passing ceiling is high enough to punish a Bears defense that ranks near the bottom in DVOA despite leading the league in takeaways, so -160 isn’t a slam dunk—but the combination of home field, current trajectories, and health (Chicago’s issues are more at WR and on the DL, Detroit’s are in the trenches) justifies a B+ grade on Bears Moneyline from both a win-probability and modest value standpoint. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 02/01/2026 11:49.([prideofdetroit.com](https://www.prideofdetroit.com/detroit-lions-game-preview/153961/keys-detroit-lions-victory-over-chicago-bears-week-18-honolulu-blueprint))

This matchup profiles as another shootout, so I’m on Over 50.5 at -110 with an A- grade, leaning into both teams’ top-tier offensive efficiency and recent head-to-head history. Detroit and Chicago both rank among the league’s best in yards per play and third-down/red-zone metrics, with advanced models putting the Lions around 7.8 yards per snap and the Bears near 7.0, and neither defense has consistently slowed explosive plays—Chicago is bottom-tier in run and pass DVOA, while Detroit’s banged-up front seven and secondary have sprung leaks as the season’s worn on. The last three meetings have produced totals of 73, 51 and 41 points, including this year’s 52-21 Lions rout, and both clubs have been frequent Over teams lately with aggressive play-calling and high tempo. Even with Rome Odunze (foot) likely limited or held out and Detroit monitoring Amon-Ra St. Brown’s practice reps, the core offensive engines—Goff, Williams, Jahmyr Gibbs, D’Andre Swift, DJ Moore, Sam LaPorta—are all trending toward playing, and the Bears’ league-leading takeaway rate actually helps the Over by creating short fields and extra possessions. Cold but not extreme January conditions at Soldier Field shouldn’t materially suppress scoring, and with Chicago’s run game and Detroit’s vertical passing both having plus matchups against vulnerable fronts, a script in the high 20s for both offenses is more likely than not, giving the Over meaningful cushion over 50.5 and enough edge to warrant an A- despite typical Week 18 volatility. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 02/01/2026 11:49.([squawka.com](https://www.squawka.com/en/nfl/nfl-news/detroit-lions-vs-chicago-bears-betting-tips-predictions-4-jan-2026-expert-nfl-analysis/))

Against the spread, I’m laying the field goal with Chicago at -3 (-102) for a B-grade play, banking on their balanced offense and healthier trenches to separate late against an undermanned Detroit front. The Lions’ offensive line has cycled through eight different combinations with starters like Decker, Sewell and Glasgow all either hurt or recently sidelined, and their ground game has cratered during the current three-game skid, forcing Goff into one-dimensional, high-volume passing against a Bears defense that, while leaky in yardage, leads the NFL in takeaways and has feasted on obvious passing situations. Chicago is 10-5 ATS on the season and 6-2 at home, averaging just over 30 points per game at Soldier Field, and the Williams-led offense now pairs a top-five rushing attack with efficient play-action—exactly the formula that’s stressed Detroit’s declining run defense, which is giving up nearly five yards per carry and now faces elite outside-zone and perimeter concepts from Swift and Kyle Monangai. Key injuries do cut both ways—Chicago may be without Odunze and some defensive-line depth, while Detroit could be missing or limiting Amon-Ra St. Brown and multiple starting linemen—but the Bears’ issues are more on the margins, whereas the Lions’ cluster problems are at positions that directly move the number (offensive line and defensive front). Given that the market’s implied win probability and simulation models both lean Bears, grabbing the home favorite at a cheap -102 juice on the key number of 3 offers just enough value, especially with Chicago still incentivized by seeding, to justify backing Bears -3 with a B rather than a higher grade due to the ever-present backdoor risk in a likely high-scoring game. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 02/01/2026 11:49.([prideofdetroit.com](https://www.prideofdetroit.com/detroit-lions-game-preview/153961/keys-detroit-lions-victory-over-chicago-bears-week-18-honolulu-blueprint))