Red Wings vs Bruins

The market is making Detroit a modest road favorite at -140, but with the Wings riding a three-game skid and having allowed 16 goals across their last four outings, there is real value backing Boston at 118 on home ice. Detroit’s blue line is thinned with depth pieces like Simon Edvinsson and Shai Buium on the shelf and Elmer Soderblom sidelined, and their November slide has dragged them down to 13-11-1, while Boston sits at 14-12-0 after a stretch in which they’ve still gone 8-5-0 this month despite uneven five-on-five play. The Bruins’ injury list is long — David Pastrnak and Pavel Zacha are both out or day-to-day, Viktor Arvidsson is sidelined, and Charlie McAvoy remains on IR — but Swayman’s current .915 save percentage and his career 6-4 record with a 2.24 GAA against Detroit, combined with a top-10 penalty kill that can pressure a Red Wings power play built around Larkin, Alex DeBrincat and Lucas Raymond, make Boston the sharper side at plus money. Detroit’s top line has historically produced against Boston, with Larkin at nearly a point per game versus the Bruins, but the Wings’ recent defensive leaks and road mediocrity tilt this matchup toward Boston’s structure and goaltending, especially in a building where these teams often play one-goal grinders. At this price the edge is not overwhelming, but in terms of win probability versus payout, Bruins 118 rates as a B+ play. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 29/11/2025 09:29am

With the total sitting at 5.5 and the Under priced at 100, this matchup leans toward a tighter scoreline than Detroit’s recent track meets would suggest, largely because Boston’s injury issues strip away much of their high-end finishing while Swayman’s form raises the defensive floor. The Bruins are averaging just over 3.0 goals for and 3.1 against on the season, but in their last few games they’ve oscillated between low-event wins like the 3-1 grind over the Islanders and a lopsided loss to the Rangers where the missing top line of Pastrnak, Zacha and Matej Blumel was obvious, and that trio’s continued absence caps Boston’s ceiling at even strength and on the power play. Detroit’s 2.9 goals for and 3.3 against per game, plus a month of leaky defensive results, keep bettors wary, yet this is also a team whose offense leans heavily on one line; against a structured Boston side with an 83-percent penalty kill and a goaltender who has historically handled Red Wings shooters well, it’s more likely that Larkin and DeBrincat are held to one or two goals than that this turns into another 6-3 type game. Factor in that the Bruins are at home after an emotional loss, typically a spot where they clamp down defensively, and that both benches are dealing with key injuries on the wings and blue line, and the Under 5.5 at 100 offers a strong blend of hit rate and even-money payout, grading out as an A- recommendation. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 29/11/2025 09:29am

Given how often Detroit and Boston have played one-goal games in recent seasons — including Detroit’s 2-1 home win last March and a 1-1-1 head-to-head split in 2024-25 — the likeliest script again suggests a tight, low-margin contest, making Boston +1.5 on the puckline at -220 an appealing way to leverage home ice and Swayman’s edge without needing an outright upset. Detroit arrives 13-11-1 but on a three-game slide and with a defense that has been repeatedly exposed in November, while the Bruins are 14-12-0, 8-5-0 this month and have leaned hard on goaltending and special teams to survive a rash of injuries that includes Pastrnak, Zacha, McAvoy and Arvidsson; that combination usually produces grinding, one-goal outcomes rather than blowouts. Larkin and DeBrincat have respectable career numbers against Boston, but Swayman’s track record versus Detroit is strong, and Boston’s penalty kill can help compensate for any five-on-five matchup issues against Detroit’s top line, further reducing the odds of the Wings pulling away by multiple goals. The price of -220 limits the raw value — hence only a B grade — yet in terms of pure probability, Boston keeping this within a goal (and often winning outright) is a very high-frequency result in a matchup defined by injuries, recent form and dependable goaltending on the home side. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 29/11/2025 09:29am