Broncos vs Commanders

Denver has ripped off eight straight wins behind an elite defense allowing just 17.5 points per game and a steadily efficient Bo Nix (2,421 passing yards, 18 touchdowns) steering a balanced, turnover-averse offense, while Washington staggers into Sunday night on a six-game skid with one of the league’s worst defenses and continued uncertainty over whether a still-limited Jayden Daniels or Marcus Mariota actually starts under center. Both teams are coming out of the bye, but the contrast in trajectory is stark: the Broncos sit atop the AFC West and are firmly in the No. 1 seed conversation, whereas the 3-8 Commanders are essentially in evaluation mode despite getting playmakers like Terry McLaurin closer to full speed and hoping their strong rushing attack can shorten games. Even in cool mid-40s temperatures with a mostly cloudy forecast and light winds that should slightly mute the passing game rather than flip the script entirely, Denver’s top-three scoring defense and pass rush have a substantial edge against a Washington offense that has struggled in late-game “winning time” moments all year. Given the talent gap, quarterback stability, and defensive mismatch, I’m comfortable laying the price and backing the Broncos moneyline at -270, grading it an A- because the win probability looks more like a heavy favorite in the -325 range, even if the juice trims some of the raw bankroll upside. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 28/11/2025 11:56 ([rotowire.com](https://www.rotowire.com/football/lineups.php))

With Denver scoring 23.4 points per game and Washington at 21.5, the raw season averages suggest a mid-40s total, but context pushes me slightly toward the Under: the Broncos’ defense ranks top three in yards and points allowed, holding opponents to 17.5 per game with a deep pass rush and a now-healthy Patrick Surtain leading the back end, while the Commanders have averaged just 17.5 points over their six-game losing streak as red-zone execution and late-game decision-making have repeatedly failed them. A cool, mid-40s night at an outdoor Northwest Stadium with mostly cloudy skies and no major wind should favor Denver’s physical run game and methodical, clock-chewing approach after the bye more than a wide-open shootout, especially if Washington leans on its fifth-ranked rushing offense to protect a shaky quarterback situation rather than asking Mariota or a not-fully-cleared Daniels to trade explosive plays with Nix. Add in that Denver’s offense is efficient but not hyper-explosive and Washington’s defense, while statistically poor overall, did show some improvement under Dan Quinn’s renewed play-calling in Madrid, and a script built around long drives, field goals from Wil Lutz, and a conservative Commanders game plan feels more likely than another 35–33-style meeting like their 2023 classic. I’ll go Under 43 at -106 and grade it a B+ — the edge is real given Denver’s defensive profile and the likely run-heavy, post-bye tendencies on both sides, but a leaky Washington defense still leaves some risk of the Broncos pushing this into the mid-20s on their own. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 28/11/2025 11:56 ([rotowire.com](https://www.rotowire.com/football/lineups.php))

Against the number, laying -5.5 with Denver on the road still looks attractive when you weigh an eight-game winning streak and a top-three scoring defense against a Commanders team that has dropped six straight by an average margin of nearly a touchdown and ranks bottom five in both total and scoring defense. The Broncos’ front, led by Nik Bonitto and a rejuvenated Alex Singleton, has generated a league-high sack total, which matches up well against a Washington passing game that has toggled between an injured Daniels and Mariota and already struggled to protect the ball in high-leverage spots, while Denver’s offense — 14th in yardage and buoyed by Courtland Sutton and emerging weapon Troy Franklin — should consistently find favorable matchups against a secondary that has allowed close to 250 passing yards per game. Even if McLaurin is available and productive, as he was with 5 catches for 54 yards and a score in Denver back in 2023, the Commanders’ defensive injuries and schematic volatility under Quinn make it hard to see them holding up for four quarters, particularly with both teams rested off the bye and the Broncos chasing an AFC West title and potential first-round bye while Washington plays out the string. At -114, Denver only needs to cover this number a bit more than 53% of the time to be a positive play, and given their defensive dominance, quarterback edge, and Washington’s prolonged skid, I grade Broncos -5.5 as an A- spread bet that offers better risk-reward than the moneyline while still leaning heavily on the same structural advantages. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 28/11/2025 11:56 ([rotowire.com](https://www.rotowire.com/football/lineups.php))