Denver Nuggets vs Toronto Raptors

Toronto leans on Scottie Barnes and Brandon Ingram to extend a two-game win streak at home against a Denver team riding a two-game skid into the final stop of a taxing road trip. With Nikola Jokic, Aaron Gordon, Christian Braun and Cameron Johnson all sidelined, Jamal Murray is forced into an ultra-high-usage role against a Raptors core that’s mostly healthy outside of Jakob Poeltl and has been solid at Scotiabank Arena. Barnes and Ingram have historically produced well versus Denver, and with Toronto sitting in the top four of the East while Denver clings to a top-three seed in the West well before the 41-game midpoint, the motivation and matchup edges tilt strongly toward the home side despite the heavy price. I like Toronto on the moneyline at -282 and would grade this an A- for win probability but only decent value at the current number. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 31/12/2025 09:46

Denver’s offense, which has been one of the league’s highest scoring units, should regress meaningfully in its first full game without Jokic, especially with Gordon and key shooters also out, while Toronto enters on a two-game win streak with a defense allowing roughly 113 points per night and trending upward. The Barnes–Ingram–Immanuel Quickley trio can still put pressure on a weakened Nuggets interior, but with Poeltl out and Mo Bamba freshly integrated, the Raptors have leaned into more half-court execution rather than breakneck pace, and Denver’s road fatigue plus thinner rotation further points toward fewer total possessions. Add in that both teams are around .500 over their last 10 and still short of the halfway mark in the schedule—so we’re not yet in full playoff-desperation mode—and this profiles more like a controlled home win than a track meet, leading me to the Under 224.5 at -104 with a B grade given the uncertainty around Denver’s new rotation. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 31/12/2025 09:46

Jamal Murray and the remaining Nuggets core have the shot-making to hang around, but Denver arrives on a two-game losing streak, down Jokic plus multiple rotation pieces, and finishing a grueling road swing against a Raptors group that has won two straight and is quietly rebuilding a home-court edge. Toronto’s rangy wings—Barnes, Ingram and RJ Barrett—match up well with a smaller Denver frontcourt, and both Barnes and Ingram have historically posted strong all-around lines versus the Nuggets, while Denver’s defense, already giving up close to 118 points per game, now loses its backline organizer. With the Raptors sitting firmly in the upper tier of the East and Denver trying to stabilize its West seeding before the midseason point, I slightly prefer Toronto -7.5 at -102 and grade it a B-, acknowledging the value of backing a healthier, deeper home favorite but respecting the risk that Murray’s scoring keeps this inside the number. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 31/12/2025 09:46