Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans

Denver’s depth has been grinding out wins even without Nikola Jokic, and with a 26-13 record against a Pelicans team stuck at 9-32 and 1-4 over its last five, the talent and form gap is still obvious despite Denver traveling to New Orleans. With Jokic, Cameron Johnson, Jonas Valanciunas and multiple rotation guards sidelined while Jamal Murray is questionable, the Nuggets are leaning on Aaron Gordon, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Peyton Watson, who just helped them beat Milwaukee and have already torched this matchup in previous meetings, while the Pelicans are missing key defensive pieces in Herbert Jones, Jose Alvarado and still haven’t seen Dejounte Murray this season. Add in that Denver has recently handled New Orleans behind huge nights from Watson and Jokic and is firmly in the West playoff race, whereas the Pelicans are sliding toward the lottery, and backing the better-coached, deeper group on the moneyline at -150 still grades as a B: reasonably likely to cash but with only moderate monetary value given the juice and Denver’s injury risk. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 13/01/2026 09:46([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nba/team/_/name/den/denver-nuggets?utm_source=openai))

New Orleans’ defense, already allowing north of 122 points per game and now missing Herbert Jones and Jose Alvarado on the perimeter, looks like the key ingredient for a shootout against a Nuggets team that has been scoring around 123 per night and recently hung 125 on the Pelicans in this matchup. Even with Jokic sidelined, Denver’s offense has stayed functional and fairly fast through Gordon, Hardaway, Murray if he’s able to go, and a surging Peyton Watson, while Zion Williamson, Trey Murphy III, Jordan Poole and rookie big Derik Queen give New Orleans enough shot creation and three-point volume to exploit a Jokic-less Denver interior. With both sides leaning on offense-first lineups because of injuries, the Pelicans’ motivation to put on a home show despite their record, and Denver still chasing top-four seeding, the environment points to a high-variance, up-and-down game where late-clock fouling can push things past the 235.5 total; that makes Over 235.5 at -110 a B- play—decent upside but meaningfully exposed to Denver’s offense sputtering if Murray is ruled out. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 13/01/2026 09:46([cbssports.com](https://www.cbssports.com/nba/gametracker/preview/NBA_20260113_DEN%40NO?utm_source=openai))

Nikola Jokic’s absence makes Denver -2.5 on the road a much shorter number than we’d typically see in this matchup, but the Nuggets have still covered comfortably against quality teams like Milwaukee and have repeatedly handled New Orleans, including a recent 125-118 road win where their wings and guards overwhelmed the Pelicans’ shaky backcourt. Denver comes in having won three of its last five and sitting firmly in the West’s upper tier, while New Orleans has dropped four of five and is effectively playing out the string, now further weakened by injuries to Herb Jones, Jose Alvarado and Dejounte Murray that strip away their best point-of-attack and team-defense options against Jamal Murray (if active), Tim Hardaway Jr. and Peyton Watson. With Denver’s motivation to protect playoff seeding, New Orleans’ trend of fading late in games, and the spread sitting at essentially “just win by a bucket,” Nuggets -2.5 at -110 earns a B- grade: the value is slightly better than the moneyline and still leans on the clear quality gap, but Jokic and depth injuries keep it short of a higher-confidence mark. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 13/01/2026 09:46([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nba/team/_/name/den/denver-nuggets?utm_source=openai))